Saturday, 12 August 2017

Brighton - Manchester City

PICK: Manchester City first half -0,5 @1,81 PINNACLE 3/10

The American Express Community Stadium will host 1st round of Premier league. Home Brighton&Hove Albion will face Manchester City.


Brighton is newly promoted team, who will face one of the toughest opponents in the league. We can expect them to see in defensive minded 4-5-1 (4-4-1-1) formation. Even if I think that they will prepare some surprises this season, especially at home, where fans cannot wait to see their Amex stadium hosting Premier league. Their last friendly match was against world-class opponent. They played against Atletico Madrid and lost only with 2-3. We need to mention, that Atletico will start their season a week later, so Premier league teams were much further in preparations, but losing only for a goal and scoring two goals against one of the best defensive teams in the world sounds extremely good. Taking a whole picture, they were not able to keep possession against the team, who don't like to have it. Atletico had more than 60% of possession and Brighton had problems with creating some decent chances in the match, even though they scored twice.

Manchester City had a crazy summer. Some people are saying that it's crazy, unreal, even unfair, how much money they spent, but on the other hand, as Guardiola said, they had one of the oldest teams in Europe. They haven't bought any full backs for several years and all of them were practically over 30. With new, young signings, City average age dropped to 24 and will allow their coach to rotate much more. Superior full back Mendy isn't ready yet, as well as Gundogan who missed half of last season, but all other key players are in the squad. Winning Real Madrid with 4-1, Tottenham with 3-0 and at the end West Ham with 3-0 as well, Citizens are decided to take some silverwares this season. We can expect plenty of rotations during the season, but this time Pep will rotate between high quality players.



City will be strongly in control of the ball. I wouldn't be surprised to see more than 70% of possession on their side and except of an early goal of Brighton, I think that nothing can stop Citizens today. Team will be better and better during the season. Expectations are high, but players learned a lot last season, so I believe to see them in better shape this time. With Walker and today probably Danilo on full back positions (or wide midfield), we can expect City overlapping on both sides and I am confident, that they will create at least 4-5 100% chances in this match.

New season

As you know, Ligue 1 is offered only for subscribers (more informations on footalyct@gmail.com), while analysis of other leagues will be offered on the site from time to time!

First analysis on Premier league will come in next hour.

Good luck to everyone!


Tuesday, 4 July 2017

Start of preparations on next season!

Preparations on season 2017/18 have started for all the teams in L1.

Dates of first training:
19. June - Nice, Lille
22. June - Rennes, Tolouse
24. June - Metz
26. June - Amiens, Angers, Bordeaux, Caen, Marseille, Montpellier, Nantes, Saint-Etienne, Strasbourg
27. June - Lyon, Troyes
28. June - Dijon
30. June - Monaco, Guingamp
4. July - Paris SG

Don't forget to check Ligue 1 preview 2017/18 on daily basis. Page is updated daily, for now with transfers, but soon also the comment of last and prediction of next season will be updated.

Don't forget to get the news about the subscription! All you have to do is to send an enquiry on footalyct@gmail.com.


Regards!

Friday, 16 June 2017

News

Dear followers,

on the link HERE, I will post a whole preview for the next season of Ligue 1. Page will be updated daily! In case of copying it anywhere, I would kindly ask to add the author of the preview.

* As I've mentioned during the last season, after whole year of delivering free analysis with great stats, there will be a subscription from next season on. For more informations, write me on footalyct@gmail.com. Group of subscribers will be limited. 

Besides twitter account has been changed to @footalyct!

Regards!

Saturday, 10 June 2017

International matches

As written in the post HERE, I advised you to minimise your stakes for international matches. We've seen yesterday, that side who had only two points and played with almost the new squad (preparing next generation) is totally capable to beat the team, who was with amount of points above Netherlands and in the game for 2nd place. Anyway.. take a look of Savitskiy goal for Belarus at 1:30!


In the same group we've seen the other surprise, as Sweden managed to beat France. I am very disappointed by Deschamps, who I think is using 50% of the country's potential. "Luckily" Evra is out, so Mendy "needed" to play, otherwise we would probably see someone from "experienced" players in the squad. I will make a deeper post match analysis of this match during the week. For now, besides the lineup, I don't understand why is one of most talented squads mainly attacking with crosses. And by mainly, I mean at least 80% of attacks. Moreover, except one cross which finished on head of Griezmann, all of them were sent to Giroud, who was jumping more than running. Even though he is a goalscorer, I think that France is capable of much more, with different tactics, different lineup and especially modern football. Kante was pronounced as the best player of Premier league but looks that he hasn't got the place in French lineup. Prolific youngsters - Dembele, Mbappe, Lemar.. are they really to young? Too unexperienced? Not good enough? That he is choosing a player, who was sitting on the bench for majority of matches in Tottenham? 




I've learned my lesson and I will stay out of those matches. I can share matches, which were on my list besides France and Bulgaria:
- Kazahstan v Denmark, PICK Denmark AH -1 @1,85 1/10 
- Serbia v Wales, PICK Wales AH +0,5 @2,32 1/10 
- Azerbaijan v Northern Ireland, PICK Azerbaijan AH +0,25 @1,99 1/10



Friday, 9 June 2017

Belarus - Bulgaria

PICK: Bulgaria AH +0,25 @1,704 PINNACLE 1/10

In 6th round Borisov Arena will host the match between 5th placed Belarus and 3rd placed Bulgaria.


Belarus who's manager is on the thin ice and this match might be decisive for his future on the bench of national team, started qualifications with surprising draw against France, but that was the match where they probably used all the luck for the group stage. Their ultra defensive approach succeded but after that they failed against everyone. Even against Luxembourg at home against who they scored 10 minutes till the end, and they were in possession (67%), having much more chances in the match, having a player more on the pitch since 43th minute on, but 5 minutes after their goal, Luxembourg scored and match finished with 1-1. It looks that Kriusenko is aware that they won't be capable to prepare a surprise in the group, so he decided to "renew" the national team. He left out some important, experienced international players as: attackers Rodionov and Kornilenko, midfielders Bressan and Kislyak and defenders Martynovich, Bardachev, Sitov and Valadzko. Moreover, captain Hleb is out due to injury as well. There are many young players, without international experiences in the squad of Belarus, who are mainly coming from domestic league.


Bulgaria is in pretty same shape, as I've mentioned at the end of last year, they are without star players, but it looks that they've found the way with the manager Petar Hubchev. In their last match they've surprised everyone and won against Netherlands with 2-0, while one match before they won against tonights opponent Belarus, but it was far from the easy match as opponents created much more chances, and they deserved a point. Bulgaria is with 9 points still in the position to make a surprise as 2nd placed Sweden is only one point above and Bulgarians has things in their hands. Hubcev said on press conference, that he is totally aware that the match will be extremelly hard, and not just because they are playing against strong team, but also because they are in position, where they simply need to get points from the team who is without chances with 2 points.


All in all, I am taking really low odds here, which are far from my average odds (2,00) but I can see the value in those odds, which are covering half of draw. I think that Belarus with totally changed lineup, without some stable players on which they relied will be totally different. It's true that because of that they are less predictable as well, but I think that match will finish at least with draw and that Bulgarians are too big underdogs.

FT: 2-1

Sweden - France

PICK: France AH -0,75 @1,96 PINNACLE 1/10

In 6th round of World Cup qualifications in group A, 2nd placed Sweden will host 1st placed France on Friends Arena in Solna. 


General opinion about Sweden national team was, that they will struggle without Zlatan Ibrahimović, but right now, they are in solid position in pretty strong Group A. They have started qualifications with a draw against Netherlands, while their only defeat was against France in Paris. Except Luxembourg (0-1), Bulgaria and Belarus were defeated with style (3 and 4 goals difference). They introduced themselves as a strong, disciplined team, who's new number 10 is Forsberg, star of Leipzig. As said, the key for success of this team is to play well organised, disciplined and defending with whole team, but on the other hand.. besides Forsberg, they have also Berg, Guidetti, Larsson, Toivonen, Durmaz and they are fully capable to cause problems to every side. Except Wendt, who has retired from national football in March, all important players are prepared for tonights match. Regarding the news from Sweden, people are optimistic about the match - who they wouldn't be.. they've beaten Portugal in last friendly match with 2-3 and even if it was a friendly match with lots of substitutions, result boosted their atmosphere.


France is on 1st place, but we need to admit, that they haven't shown too much of class in qualification matches. They started with draw in Minsk and then added 4 wins, but except against Bulgaria at home (4-1), they were pretty close to failure against Netherlands away, and Sweden at home. They started impressive in Amsterdam, but after a goal of Pogba, they started falling and at the end they were pretty lucky to win. Against Sweden, they were in possession of the match, preparing more chances, but still letting Swedens to come in solid positions. Sweden played well organised, and France had problems in final third of the pitch, where it was simply impossible to pass the Swedish defensive line. With Sagna and Evra out, we can expect Monaco's Mendy and Sidibe on both full back positions, which will be a massive boost to the lineup of France in my opinion. There are rumours that Varane will come back to the first lineup even though he trained alone on Tuesday as he joined the team in Clairefontaine after festive days with his team in Madrid (celebrating the Champions league). Other change might be on the right side of the team, where Deschamps might trust experienced Sissoko over young Dembele.


For my eyes, Sweden played one of the best possible matches in Paris on 11th of November, while France missed some good chances. Even if Swedens played well, their only shot on the target was from free kick, which luckily finished in the net. I strongly believe that match won't change a lot. France will be in possession, creating more chances then Swedens and even if it's almost sure that Deschamps will let his young weapons on the bench there will be one big change for sure and that's Mendy on left full back position. He has shown that even though he is really young, his attacking potential is amazing and because of that, Swedens will need to stay deeper, especially their full backs won't be available to go high on the pitch and besides that, there will be bigger pressure on them as well. Generally I think that squad of France is or is becoming one of the strongest squads in all the history of this country. Even though there are still other 4 matches till the end of the qualifications.. if France will win tonight, they will have calm second period of qualifications. I know that match is even more important for Sweden, but I simply think that quality will make the difference. They surprised them in first match and thats why I think that French will be better prepared on the match today.

FT: 2-1