Monday, 7 November 2016

Comment of last round

As mentioned in this round I published picks without stakes.

Montpellier - Marseille, PICK Draw @3,17
Firstly my pick was Montpellier AH +0 for 4 units, but after analysing, seeing some players missing and also some coming back after virus. After analysis I decided to for 2 units lower stake and picking directly draw here. 

Marseille was in possession (32-68%), but they didn't succeed in front of goal. At 1-0 for Marseille, N'Jie came to really good position to score, but he missed for few cm. Second goal of Montpellier came from mistake of OM in midfield, and with some luck after cross from right side ball came to best individual of home team - Boudebouz who scored for 2-0. Rudi made 2 changes in half-time and Marseille bounce back with goal of Thauvin in 52th minute, but 5 minutes later Marseille lost ball in midfield again and Montpellier finished counter-attack with 4 passes and Mounie scored for 3-1. Marseille had one nice chance till end but result didn't changed. 
Maybe I should not change the first pick I made, but Marseille was in control of the match (except result), they had more than 350 passes more, but they did crucial mistakes in midfield and Montpellier was absolutely fantastic in counter attacks.

Malaga - Sp. Gijon, PICK Malaga team totals over 1,5 @1,98
Another match where I was right with analysis. Malaga controlled the game totally but Gijon was the one who started with scoring...

In general more possession means more chances and it was like this on this match. Malaga scored 3 goals, so even 1 more as we needed, but they could score even more - specially Santos and Juanpi missed great opportunities, but anyway what is important is that analyse was correct, and what is important for you - also graded with green checkmark.

Lyon - Bastia, PICK Lyon AH -1,25 @2,01
As mentioned - more possession means more chances and it was the same here. In analyse I wrote that Lyon will be much much better in this match, they were all over the pitch. They had big quantity of possession on half of Bastia, they were stealing lots of balls in midfield, but our pick was that they will win for 2 goals (they did for 1, so pick is half lost). 


It happens that analyse is perfectly correct, but no one can see in what form will strikers be - so in general I am analysing if team will be able to create chances, if they will have bigger possession and how will opponent manage to compete with them. Bastia was totally without chances in this match, they very playing pretty ugly, with bad tackles - they received two red cards and it's a miracle that Lyon didn't finish this match with bigger goal difference. Lacazette scored, but he should score at least 2-3 goals more. That was one of matches where you can not believe the result - and also goal from Bastia in last seconds of match came from nothing. Ball was bouncigg around and luckily came to Crivelli who change direction of ball and match finished right after goal... 

Las Palmas - Eibar, PICK Las Palmas team totals over 1,5 @1,90
Match which could easily finished with more goals from both sides, specially from Las Palmas who started match really strong. They were creating many chances, they were stealing lots of balls from opponent, they had 300 more passes, controlling the match, but they were too poor at finishing.

Again, I can say that pick was on right place. In analyse you can see that I was thinking also about taking a win, but this one would go throw with lots of luckiness (goal from penalty in 93th min). Las Palmas could score those 2 goals in first half and everything would be fine, but thats football. Again, we can not say in what kind of form players will be, so I am taking average form - and if let's say Boateng would be in average form in this match, then he wouldn't miss chance from 5 meters, but he did. 

Villarreal - Betis, PICK Villarreal AH -0,75 @1,80 
This is pick where I had the biggest confidence in success but I need to say that I expected that they will score from normal chances which they created - shot of Sansone was blocked in 24th minute; from free kick from side, they hit crossbar; between 60-65 min Bakambu and Castillejo both had great chances, but Adan saved them incredibly. All in all Villarreal was in control of match totally, but in last 15 minutes they started playing more defensively and trying only from counter-attacks. Betis was better in this part of game, but result stayed at 2-0.

Someone could say that I was lucky because Villarreal scored two eurogoals from distance, but they could score normal goals too, so my point is again that analysis was correct. In this case also result was correct and everyone is happy here.

PSG - Rennes, PICK Rennes team totals over 0,5 @2,06
This is match where I can say that it was my mistake. It is true that stake was only 3 units (half less then for Villarreal), but anyway. Rennes looked solid in start, N'tep had great opportunity to make this pick green, but he missed.

Maybe everything would be different if N'tep would score in start of game, but after first goal of PSG and specially after second, Rennes collapsed totally. They were not biting in midfield, Parisians were just "walking" throw midfield, pass success of Rennes was poor, they made lots of errors - one of them was punished with eurogoal of Cavani... All in all I expected much more from Rennes - it's true that I was right about problems for PSG on flank where N'tep is playing, but he was not enough for something positive, so I can say that my analysis was incorrect here. 

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