Friday, 18 November 2016

Lorient - Monaco

PICK: Monaco AH -0,5 @1,99 PINNACLE 5/10

Monaco's coach said: "Football is always balanced, it's not like volleyball, basketball, handball, ice hockey... That's why it's such an exciting sport. Anything can happen. They will be very motivated. We'll need to play with maximum respect for our opponents in order to get the three points." That's one of the reasons why I was planing to skip odds around 1,78 on Monaco, but now they jumped on average of 1,99 and because there is nothing else then new coach in Lorient and still bunch of missing players, I decided to take 1,99 because I can see value in it. 

I can still remember match between Nice and Lorient this season, when I took Nice -0,75 with high stakes (6/10). It's true that it finished with half won pick (2-1), but Lorient decided a point in this match. They have some great chances and they missed 100% chance at result 1-1, while Balotelli saved Nice in last minutes of the match. The best player of Lorient was winger Jimmy Cabot, but he is one of those on missing list. Besides, they will also miss first goalkeeper Lecomte, key defender Ciani, attacking midfielder Mesloub, while winger Moukandjo is coming back to the team and will probably start on the wing. On the other side Monaco is going into the match with full power, even if they are in front of important game in Champions league next week. It can happen that Falcao will start on the bench, but they have enough of quality in attack in Germain, Mbappe-Lottin, Silva, Lemar, and other players. Kamil Glik is coming back after suspension and will probably start in central defence position with Jamerson. They will be without Toure, Dirar and Moutinho. 

In average both teams posses similar percentage of ball possession, both of them wants to play with high number of passes. I wouldn't bet that Monaco will take high % of possession here, but I would bet that they will create more chances. They proved that they are mentally strong also, and what is important - PSG is coming to form! They are already on 3rd place with same amount of points like Monaco, and they will almost for sure take all three points in this round against Nantes, so Monaco needs to win here if they want to stay in front of them. Meanwhile Nice will have a tough match in St. Etienne, so maybe Monaco can be also closer or even on 1st place after this round.

FT: 0-3

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