Monday, 21 November 2016

Post match analysis

China 0-0 Qatar
Prediction: Qatar AH +0,5 @1,95

I was able to watch the match, and I can say that pick was fair enough. It's impossible to compare level of that football with one European team, and even if Marcelo Lippi is head coach of China, and that was his first match, they could even lose. China was better, but except some half chances, nothing serious happened. The most dangerous chance was after corner kick. China was in possession, but Qatar was pretty close to score from counter-attack. Odds on double chance were just to high, because in my opinion this China was far from having 50% chances to win this game.

Peru 0-2 Brazil
Prediction: Brazil AH -1 @2,12

As written in analysis Brazil under new head coach are just impressive. They are playing like a team, and that is big and important fact for South American team. They have bunch of quality in squad, and they are using big part of potential of this team. There is always place for improvement, but if this team will improve, then as already mentioned they will be one of favourites to win WC'18. Peru had one chance in start of the game - in 8th minute, when Carillo hit the post, but after that it was all about Brazilians. They created approximately 7 really good chances, and they realised two of them which was enough as for them as for me.

Athletic Bilbao 1-0 Villarreal
Prediction: over 2,5 goals @2,42

What is important here, is to mention that odds I took on over here were 2,42! That means that mathematically bookmakers said that chances are approx. 40%-60% for under which was nonsense for me. Match didn't start as I expect - Villarreal started with Bakambu on the bench, with additional defensive midfielder so 1st half was more or less nothing serious. But second half started rapidly. Between 50th and 60th minute, we saw 4 solid chances including 1on1 chance for Williams who hit the post after beating Asenjo. Another dangerous situation was in 64th minute, but finished with corner and after that we saw a first goal. In 77th minute Asenjo saved header of Aduriz. Asenjo was winner also in 80th minute, when Aduriz was in 1on1 situation with him after mistake of Villarreal's defense. In 81st minute good try of Pato from 17-18 meters, but Arrizabalaga saved it. In 83rd minute good try of Aduriz from approx. 10 meters from side, but excellent save by Asenjo. 

It's true that I expected more offensive start of both teams - specially Villarreal, but 2nd half was totally enough and I am satisfied with pick and I would take it again. It was maybe the best pick of the week, but unfortunately finished in red color. We saw 2 situations 1on1 with goalkeeper - both missed, we saw chances after set pieces, and also throw the play. We saw around 10 chances, from which at least 5 were really solid, but we saw only one goal.

Lorient 0-3 Monaco
Prediction: Monaco AH -0,5 @1,99

I can say that I was right about everything in this match. Even before the game we saw some crazy odd movement, but as I said it's probably work of arbers, who were moving the lines. There was nothing new about team news so I took Monaco with 5 units. Even with Moukandjo back, Lorient was unable to take points against as strong side as Monaco is. Lorient started solid, but minute after minute Monaco was overtaking the control of the game and 2nd half started totally differently. First Lemar hit the post, and in 63rd minute Jardim made the substitution - Mbappe off the pitch, Falcao on the pitch...

.. one minute later, counter-attack by Monaco and goal of Falcao. 3 minutes later foul approx. on 30m and magnificent free kick by Lemar. Then one solid save by Subašić and missed opportunity from 5 meters for Falcao, and for the end another free kick, this time taken by Boschilia and 0-3.

Crystal Palace 1-2 (HT 0-1) Manchester City
Prediction: Manchester City 1st half AH -0,5 @2,06

It was not as smooth as expected. It was one of poorest first halftimes of Manchester City this season with lots of stolen minutes because of injuries - Kompany was substituted while receiving hit to the head and even if Crystal Palace was not specially dangerous, I am not that satisfied with pick even if it's green. City scored after great action by Yaya and Nolito with superb finish by Yaya and that was enough. 

Real Betis 2-0 Las Palmas
Prediction: both teams to score @1,719

Losing units on Las Palmas again and I could say that I am getting fed up with them, but I am not. They prepared 5 solid chances to score, and I needed just one goal. Of course it's a shame that didn't happen, but my analysis about them was correct. I said that Las Palmas will have bigger possession and they had it (66%). But I admit that I will need to add the fact that they are really bad finishers. Betis score from two corners, and Sanchez started with win.


Deportivo La Coruna 2-3 Sevilla
Prediction: Sevilla AH -0,25 @1,99

Match started with goal of Babel, but it was not for Sevilla. They were in possession, but didn't create anything special. In 42nd minute was 2-0, after Andone being Lionel Messi. After that Sevilla woke up and started playing as needed to take points from Riazor. In second half it was everything about Sevilla. Possession was 27%-73%, shots 4-20, and at the end of the match Sevilla overtake the result with goals of Vitolo and Mercado.

It's true that goals came in last minutes of the match, but Sevilla was much better opponent in this match, and 3 points are totally deserved.

Bastia 1-1 Montpellier
Prediction: Montpellier AH +0 @1,917

Bastia started better, but goal came after Skhiri pushed the ball into his own goal after a corner kick. After that Crivelli, attacker of Bastia had 2 chances to make it 2-0, but he didn't suceed and after that Montpellier started playing better too. First chance for Sanson, then goal of Mounie and some chances from direct free kicks, but result didn't change till end of the match. It was a solid try, but Montpellier shown that they are poor when they need to be in control of the match. It could be different if Bastia would try to have bigger possession, but well.. it ended with 1-1 and with voided prediction.

Deportivo Alaves 0-1 Espanyol
Prediction: Espanyol AH +0,25 @1,79

As said in analysis, Espanyol was underestimated in my opinion by the bookmakers, and that's the main reason I took the asian handicap on them. First real opportunity was from direct free kick, from which Reyes hit the crossbar. Match was somehow in the edge, with little bit bigger possession of Alaves. In 78th minute Alexis played with hand in the box and referee whistle the penalty kick. Pacheco saved the penalty of Moreno, but the same player correct hist mistake and scored 2 minutes later after pass of Piatti from corner kick and match ended with 0-1.

Marseille 1-0 Caen
Prediction: Marseille AH -0,75 @1,917; half win

Match of missed opportunities by Marseille, but finished with 1-0 win anyway. As predicted Caen started with defensive 5-3-2 formation and trying with some counter-attacks but they were far from success. They didn't even shot on the target in whole 90 minutes! On video you can see what kind of chances were missed by OM... Anyway analysis was correct, and luckily they succeeded to score at least one goal.

This week was much much better, with 7W 1V and 2L picks. Analysis were more or less correct - predictions about possession, created chances, where will one team be in advantage (example Bilbao in aerial duels) etc. I am happy that also both missed picks were backed by correct analysis but I will need to count harder on finishing rate, because some teams are playing creative, making lots of chances, but level of finishing is disaster (Las Palmas).   So there is place for improvement, and I am looking forward to improve things.

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