Wednesday, 28 December 2016

Post match analysis

Post match analysis is coming little bit later than usually, but anyway.. except in Premier league, teams are on holidays, so I took some free time as well. 😊 

It was amazing round in Ligue 1, where all the predictions were correct, but I need to admit that I am not that satisfied with analysis as I am with final results of matches. About Premier league I need to admit that I still needs to learn a lot. There is lot of unpredictable situations, fight for winnings 2nd balls, and some teams are really used to play ultra defensive football. For example Hull was defending with 8-9 players in the box against Manchester City.

Bastia 1-2 Marseille
Prediction: Marseille AH -0,25 @2,00

After seeing the match I need to say, that I was little bit lucky with goal which came after 90 minutes, but if it would finished with 1-1, I would be really unlucky as Bastia managed to equalise in 82th minute. Analysis was more or less correct, Bastia tried with lots of shots with distance, OM was in possession, and individually Thauvin and Cabella were making big problems on flanks. Anyway one of the key players on this game was young 21-year old Anguissa, who won lots of aerial duels, had some important tackles and it was really hard to pass him in the midfield. All in all, I am satisfied with analysis and even more with prediction.

Lyon 2-0 Angers
Prediction: Lyon AH -1,25 @2,03

I need to say that I didn't expect as many chances for Angers. They could easily punish some individual errors of OL's players and make things heavier for Lyon, but Lopes showed again, that he is one of the best goalkeepers in the league. Anyway, as I predicted, Lyon played much better, being in control of the match, have much higher passing accuracy and even scoring from counter-attack which I mentioned as one of the biggest problems for Angers in this match. Even if Lyon were without one of key players, captain Tolisso, they secured 3 points and finished this part of season with 4 wins in a row.

Nantes 1-0 Montpellier
Prediction: Nantes AH -0,5 @2,30

Nantes with Conceicao remains 100%. They won Montpellier in cup, Angers on away match and now Montpellier in league match as well. As analysed, they are flying on "new manager" effect right now and in first 30 minutes of match we were able to see what Portuguese manager wants from them. It could be even 2-0 already, but after that they were not able to run as much, they were too late in closing downs, demanded pressing was poor. Anyway, as mentioned in analysis Montpellier without Boudebouz is not the same, and even if Dupe made some great saves, guests were not focused enough in crucial moments and Nantes won. As I wrote in analysis, Montpellier is poor on defending wing positions and in those first 30 minutes, Nantes was coming to chance attack after attack right throw wing plays, so I am satisfied also with analysis.

Hull City 0-3 Manchester City
Prediction: Manchester City 1st half AH -0,75 @2,17

I need to admit, that my analysis was incorrect. I expected much more from City in first half, but they were simply not direct enough. Wingers were playing like midfielders, and they were not dangerous. In second half, things changed as in many of last matches of City. Even if they had hard time for first 10 minutes in 2nd half, they finished match strongly with 3 goals difference. My predictions was lost, but what bothers me more is that I was not careful enough at analysis. Odds impressed me too much, but against this Hull, with 8-9 players in the box almost for all the 90 minutes, was impossible to score, especially if wingers are not providing. They did it in second half, they were awarded with penalty and then things moved on. It's true that everything could be different if Stones would stay on pitch as he is the strongest figure in build up from back, but well.. that's the risk taken in every prediction, and this time it went against me. 

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