Saturday, 31 December 2016

So far so good ...

As half of season is over, I am publishing all the stats of analysis & predictions, posted on this blog since 6th of November. Once again, I would like to say, that I am not betting, so my focus is only on the matches. As written in "About me" I've been always passionate about tactics, and predicting the way how the match will be played is just a prove to me, that I am thinking in good way. Of course from match to match I am learning, and right now I am trying to get familiar also with probably the most unpredictable league in the world - Premier league. For now, I can say that I am more than satisfied with results, and my goal is to keep yield above 10%.  

All bets and statistics of Ligue 1:


Comment: As many of you already know, I am big fan of Spanish football and I was analysing matches only from La Liga, sometimes even Segunda, but really rarely some other leagues. I need to admit, that when I included Ligue 1, I was somehow without expectations. I was thinking in the way: "If my analysis of Spanish leagues were good, bringing profits for so many years, I can do it also elsewhere." As I am living now in France, I am closer to informations, I am able to be on the match, watch teams from all perspectives and I need to admit, that it helps. Of course French league is "smaller market" then Spanish, but still enormously high. With impressive win rate (83,33%), yield over 60%, I can not say anything else than that I am impressed by result after half of season. I missed only 3 outcomes of the match, and even there it should be 2 of them, as Nice missed impossible chances. Anyway, as I have said many times, ball is round and everything can happen. Football is one of sports where it's not needed that you'll win if you are better team on the pitch. For now Nice surprised whole world and is sitting on the highest spot, but Monaco is following them and I am sure that also PSG will join the battle. In my opinion they're coach is great, problem is that they don't have the great scorer. Cavani is missing millions of opportunities, and PSG is conceding to easily. Another surprise of the league is Guingamp, who is still in top 5, but I don't believe that they will be able to hold the tempo of the league and that they will be in the mid-table till end of the season. Looks that Marseille is finally getting in better shape with Rudi Garcia in charge and OM jumped on 6th place with winning 13 points in last 5 matches. Interesting is also at the bottom, where is still Lorient, who's not playing that bad, but unfortunately for them also other teams started picking the points recently. There is 6 teams under 20 points for now, and even if Nantes, Metz and Caen played 1 round less, I believe that they're not happy with result for now. There will be some changes in clubs, some of them already brought new players, some of them will, maybe someone will change coach, etc. Nantes did it already and they won 6 points in last two rounds. Well, I will work hard to continue with good work.


All bets and statistics of La Liga:


Comment: La Liga used to be my strongest weapon but for now it's for little bit more then 2 units in red numbers. It's also true that stake is almost twice smaller than in Ligue 1, but anyway. As you were able to see in post match analysis of last round, I missed Las Palmas because it was an early pick, and Setien decided not to include Araujo and Boateng in squad against Leganes. For now we were able to see that both giants of the league - Barcelona and Real Madrid made many mistakes already, and Sevilla, Real Sociedad, Villarreal and Atletico are all following somehow. The biggest disappointment for now is Atletico, who won only 50% of matches so far. It also looks that it's another year where one of big names of European football Valencia is facing problems, and for the good of the league, I hope that they will be able to solve all the problems and stay in the league. I think that league will be to hard for Osasuna, who is on the bottom of league table with only 7 points after 16 rounds. In second half of the season, there will be much more La Liga analysis, and even if focus is now bigger on Ligue 1, I am convinced that I will finish with La Liga in green numbers as well.



All bets and statistics of Premier league:


Comment: As mentioned above, Premier league is hardest to predict. Way of playing football is much different here. It's much more on physics, aerial duels, it's crazy how important is to win second, (third, fourth) ball, but they are really poor in build up. Many great coaches arrived in PL this year and I believe that things will start changing. For example Pochettino is doing great in Tottenham for a while, but there is still to much of "proud English" mentality in the league, where it's more important that you fight, play aggressive, and do bad fouls. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that it's wrong, but it's obvious that things will need to change in England, as they're clubs are far from being successful in Champions league recently. Last season was absolute disaster and I believe that under normal conditions, with powerful clubs, "Leicester" can not happen in the league. I know that many of you think, that that's the reason why football is so beautiful, but you'll see how good this Leicester team is when they will face one serious opponent in Champions league. I posted only 3 picks, as I am really careful about the different things, and only first match was as I predicted, while 2nd and 3rd were quite difficult. West Ham won. even if they could be at least 2 goals behind in 1st half, while Manchester City decided to play really careful first half against Hull, and then destroyed them in last 30 minutes of the match. We were used to see City offensive in 1st halves, but looks that Guardiola learned his lesson after 3 draws in row at home, even if they should win those 3 matches with 3-4 goals difference. It's really interesting to dig into this league, but I still need to learn a lot about it, so don't expect too much picks from here.



All bets and statistics of Champions league and Europa league:


Comment: Another competition where I am following teams from "my leagues", and even if I said that I'll never touch Europe league, I did it with Villarreal and I am not sorry for it. Analysis was totally correct, Villarreal should be leading with 2-3 goals difference at least, but they missed everything possible, also empty goal twice, and then penalty for Zurich in last minutes, and match ended with 1-1. I was also really lucky with Real Madrid call, while Sporting played really really good and deserved much more, but on the other hand I was unlucky with Manchester City call, as Gladbach decided to defend for all the match, even if they somehow needed to win. As De Bruyne said after match, that was his most boring last 10 minutes of the match, as they simply didn't want to play. But well, all in all I analysed only 3 matches which is far from enough to analyse results. Draw brought us some good matches and I will see if there will be any value in Europe matches.



All bets and statistics of international matches: 


Comment: Competition where I made the biggest minus. It's still only 10 units, but anyway I am not proud of red numbers. As I wrote in post analysis, Forsberg "killed" my pick for France with incredible free kick, Moldova's Gatcan scored another stunning goal, but Georgia was far better opponent, missing great chances, Austria lost against Ireland's typical style with only 132 passes in 90 minutes and scoring from counter-attack, while Brazilians surprised me and trashed Argentina. I fixed bad results with Qatar against China and Brazil against Peru then, but still. As players are coming to teams from different clubs, they are not trained together, not used to have same coaches, tactics, style of football, it's another really unpredictable word, but in future, if I will find the value, I will publish analysis on international matches as well.


Full statistics:


Comment: All in all, almost 40 units of profit with yield above 20% and win rate above 60% I am satisfied. I know that it could be much better with La Liga, but I know that I impressed even myself with Ligue 1, so I am not complaining about anything. All of you who followed me since November were able to see the way of my work, and I hope that you are satisfied as well. 

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