Thursday, 19 January 2017

Bastia - Nice

PICK: Nice AH -0,5 @2,52 PINNACLE 4/10

Match between 17th and 2nd placed team in French Ligue 1 will be played on Stade Armand-Césari in Furiani, Both teams already lost in both cups, so focus is totally on league now. Weather prognostic is fine as it is showing temperatures between 6-11°C with really really small possibility of rain for tomorrow and it's 7°C right now, so pitch should be fine.

Bastia is coming to mach after solid first half and disappointing second half in Nancy, where they lost 1-0. That things are even worse, they lost also they key offensive player St. Maximine due to red card, while coach won't risk with attacker Crivelli neather, as he returned after injury recently and he won't play two matches in row. He is not included in squad against Nice. In last home match they lost against Marseille, who was better opponent, but Corsicans were fighting strongly and had 1-1 till 92th minute. After that they were trashed by PSG in cup (7-0), and as already mentioned on last match they lost against Nancy with 1-0. Coach of Bastia will be able to use both new players Oniangue (Wolwes) and Rose (Lorient) but after few training sessions I don't believe that they could be serious reinforcement.

Favre's guys were sitting on highest position over the winter break, but in first match after it they lost this position as they played poor draw against Metz at home. Both teams had chances, but as Favre said result was pretty fair. They have enormous number of injured players. One of key players in midfield this season Seri is on ACF, and recently they lost one of the best wb's in league Perreira for 6 weeks. Well, I will focus on players who can play.. and in my opinion Favre can still send strong lineup on the pitch. Instead of Perreira, Soquet will probably start on his position. By the way, Soquet was named as man of the match against Metz. On the other side Favre has first choice Dealbert available, so flanks will be fine. Up front Balotelli is back, who will join Plea who recently extended his contract for 2 years (they rejected 50M offer from China!). 

In my calculations, there is great value on Nice. Bookmakers are giving them only aprox. 40% to win the match and I would add aprox. 5-10% here. They're game style is much more clear. Without Crivelli and St. Maximine they're options in attack are minimised. Chief commander of Nice's defence is still here - Dante, Cyprien as holding midfielder and great set-piece taker as well, while Balotelli and Plea will need to prove their qualities up-front. Who knows Favre knows that he loves through balls, and Nice is team who scored high number of goals in this way. Bastia on the other will try a lot with shots from distance, but their problem will be defending those through balls as they received a lot goals in this way. Also individual qualities are strongly on away side. I hope that this time Balo will chose great performance instead of red performance. Anyway, in my opinion odds on Nice are simply too high there.

FT: 1-1

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