Friday, 6 January 2017

Eibar - Atletico Madrid

PICK: Atletico Madrid AH -0,75 @1,95 SBO 4/10

Match between 8th and 6th team of La Liga will be played on Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa in Eibar at 16:15.

Eibar is again showing that even if they are another team from Basque region, they are capable to be in top10 of Primera. With Mendilibar who's in charge of the team since July 2015, they looks pretty solid team and even if they are without "big names", results are fine. It's true that the gap between 16th and 8th team is only 7 points, but I believe that they will be able to stay somewhere in the middle of the league table (9-13). Kike (injured in last cup match) and Ramis will be out for long time, so it may happen that they will bring someone in January, but for now there is no new faces in club.

Atletico Madrid qualified in next phase of Champions League as 1st placed team, beating strong Bayern München, but in La Liga we could say that they were struggling, or at least not reaching their goals. After loosing on El Madrigal with Villarreal (3-0), many things changed. In start of the season they tried to play more attacking football, with more offensive minded players on the pitch, trying to create more chances, having more possession, but after being most known team because of they're defensive approach in last 2 years it is too hard to change the style, even if you have players like Griezmann and Carrasco are. After mentioned defeat, they started turning back to "old Simeone's style" and that's why I see value in odds close to even here. Oblak, Carrasco, Partey, Tiago and Fernandez are out.

The fact which convinced me to go with Atleti here is, that they're going back to "old shape Atleti". Even if I am not fan of this style, it brought success to them, and Eibar will have big problems with creating chances. Eibar is used to attack over wings, where Juanfran and Luis are doing really good job for Atletico for a years, and it doesn't concern me too much. Atletico is one of teams, capable to create chances from all elements of football. They can break throw over wings, throw the middle, from direct and indirect set-pieces and they simply needs to improve, because 3rd placed Sevilla is 5 points in front of them, also Villarreal and Real Sociedad looks in pretty good form, but with help of Barcelona (at least draw) and Sevilla (at least draw), they could jump over "yellow submarine" and team from San Sebastian, so match is really important for them and with quality and experiences they possess, they should take all three points from Eibar.

FT: 0-2

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