Monday, 30 January 2017

Post mach analysis

We are in period between January and start of March, when making profits in football has always been tough. I finished with profits in French league, but without it in La Liga, which remains tough for me this season. I am really satisfied with Ligue 1, while I believe that numbers will get better in La Liga as well. 

Ligue 1:

Marseille 5-1 Montpellier
Prediction: Marseille AH -0,5

Very satisfied with analysis and with final score. Only mistake was information about Boudebouz, for who I was expecting that he won't be risked in match, but coach of Montpellier decided to start with him from 1st minute. Boudebouz scored amazing goal from free kick, but all in all we were still able to see that he is not fully fit after longer injury. As I said, Thauvin was big problem of Montpellier, creating many opportunities, being included in all goals of OM. Also Cabella played really good, so Payet who just arrived, will need to prove himself and be in good form if he will want to play key role in this team.

Lyon 1-2 Lille
Prediction: Lyon 1st half AH -0,5

Lille started match without Eder, with very defensive 5-4-1 formation, but anyway Lyon looked solid even though they started slow again, they were able to prepare some half chances. Enyeama incredibly saved free kick of Valbuena as you can see in highlight video. Unfortunately Lille was the one lucky one in first half, while Benzia received pass on 25m and decided to shot on goal. His shot changed direction after bounce of Yanga-Mbiwa and Lopes was without any chance to save the goal. All in all I thank that my call was not that bad here. Lyon had another slow start, which I didn't expect, and that's why I lost prediction here.

Angers 2-1 Metz
Prediction: Metz AH +0,5

That was the match, because of which I will start checking missing players by myself, without trusting any kind of websites. Who is following Ligue 1 knows, that Nicola Pepe is almost half of the team in offensive half, and "xy" source said that he won't be in the squad even though he is already back in Angers. I need to admit that I was pretty mad when I saw the lineups with Pepe in first eleven. Anyway, Angers scored first goal from free kick, Metz equalised, but right Pepe scored 2nd goal for Angers and it was 2-1. Situation on pitch was not that bad for Metz and I had feeling that they can bounce back, but then they received 2 direct red cards in 20 minutes, and at least at the second one, decision was way too harsh and with 2 players less they were without any chances to equalise. I am still saying that if Pepe wouldn't play, this match wouldn't finish with this result and that Angers shouldn't be as big favourite as they were, but he did and there is no place for "if's".

Lorient 2-3 Dijon
Prediction: Lorient team totals over 1,5 

I need to say that I am really really happy that I decided to change my prediction from Lorient to win to Lorient to score more than 1,5 goals. Even though they should win, and that they were better team on the pitch, they had chance in 75th minute from penalty for 3-2, but Waris missed it, while Dijon scored from counter attack in 92th minute and match finished with 2-3. As analysed, both teams played on all 3 points and once again we were able to see how good their attack is, but on the other hand also how bad their defence is.

Nice 3-1 Guingamp
Prediction: Nice AH -0,5

As written in analysis, Nice was just unlucky with injuries during ACN. With Eysseric and Seri back, midfield looks much stronger, both of them were directly included in first two goals - Eysseric assist, Seri scored. It's true that Seri's mistake lead to goal of Briand for Guingamp, but anyway his performance was quite solid (specially in first half). Guingamp didn't play bad, they had their chances, but Nice was simply too strong, better in holding the ball, much better in aerial duels, slightly better also in passing success, and they deserved 3 points here.

La Liga:

Deportivo Alaves 0-0 Atletico Madrid
Prediction: Atletico Madrid AH -0,75

As written in analysis Basque club will give 100% and they won't defend, they will try to play and to win. Exactly that happened, and matches like this are exactly what Atletico wants from their opponent. But they did only half of job, they gave ball to opponent, but they were not dangerous enough from counters. Even though in 77th minute Nico Gaitan had 1on1 chance with goalkeeper after successful counter-attack, but he didn't score. All in all, I need to say that Atletico disappointed me again. They were poor, Alaves crated so many chances, and in my opinion Alaves deserved to win. I need to say that I am not that disappointed with my call here, because as written in analysis I was expecting Alaves in possession and with more half chances, but if I am honest I was expecting much much more from counters of Atletico, who played on 2nd league level this time.

Real Betis 1-1 Barcelona
Prediction: Barcelona AH -1,5

First of all I would like to say that many bookmakers decided to void or even to mark bets on Barcelona as winners because of another incident happened to Catalans. 

Ball was almost one meter behind the line, but referees "didn't see" it behind. Barcelona didn't played their best football, while Betis played one of the best matches this season, but anyway Barcelona created enough chances to calmly win this game with more than goal difference, but Suarez didn't have his day. He had catastrophic problems with ball control, he missed some chances. Another poor performance also of another star striker in attack Neymar, who missed two nice chances. As happened many times in this season Barca started match without serious motivation. They were not fighting enough (till they received goal) but then referees stop them to bounce back and match was finished quickly (with only 3 minutes of additional time, even if we saw 5 yellow cards, 6 substitutions, two goals and twice Ter Stegen needed injury help).

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