Monday, 16 January 2017

Post match analysis

After a long period of profitable weeks, I need to admit that bookmakers were better this time. In my opinion I was pretty unlucky as well, but well. That's sports betting. Because of 6 units of deficit, post match analysis will be little bit longer.

Rennes 0-1 PSG
Prediction: PSG AH -1 @1,99

Match didn't even started and "mr. miss opportunity" Cavani missed impossible. He received the ball on 8-9 meters, came almost on 5-6 meters and missed goal. Click HERE to see it. In 29th minute in my opinion that should be a penalty on Marco Verratti, but referee shows yellow to Marco for simulation. 2 minutes later nice pass from Verratti to Draxler, and fabulous finish by German and result was 0-1. You'll be able to see more or less chances in video. PSG was much better opponent, allowing Rennes only shots from distance, creating much more chances and in my opinion they should get also the penalty. 

Angers 1-1 Bordeaux
Prediction: Bordeaux AH 0 @1,862

Another voided bet. Main reason of this prediction were many missing players for home team, but honestly, even if defender Palloa was pretty close to score in last minutes of the match (shot was stopped by crossbar), Bordeaux didn't deserve to win in Angers. Home team was fighting and I think that draw was fair result in this match. Bordeaux was statistically little bit better, but if I'm honest I expected much more will from them. They looked totally satisfied with point here.

Lorient 3-1 Guingamp
Prediction: over 2,5 goals @1,97 (2,11)

That was the match where expected happened. As analysed Lorient was in possession, Guingamp was without adequate substitution for right full back Ikoko, and Lorient scored 1st goal throw action on left flank, and win a penalty from dribble from left side as well. That I can say that analysis was perfect, I said that I think that it's time that Cabot, young winger will show his potential again.. well, Cabot was player of the game.

Nancy 1-0 Bastia
Prediction: Bastia over 0,75 @2,03 

What to say about this match. I expected much more from Bastia, but anyway specially in first half, they created enough chances to score. In video you'll be able to see a chance wasted by Crivelli. Also Danic was pretty close to score from distance, while St. Maximine played pretty bad and at the end of the match even made stupid tackle for direct red card. Because of second half I was pretty unsatisfied with analysis, but after seeing all the dangerous situations again, I need to say that I was pretty unlucky with that one, and that analysis was not that bad. Bastia had 11 shots in the match, 1 of them was stopped pretty luckily, they were even in possession, even little bit better with passing success and as I analysed Nancy with new pair of central defenders needed time and in first half hour Bastia was really really close to score. But after 60 minutes, Nancy started playing better and at the end I need to say that they deserved to win.

Everton 4-0 Manchester City
Prediction: Manchester City AH -0,5 @1,83

It looks like a shame, that I was that far from correct prediction, but if we take a look of analysis. We can see that situation from Manchester somehow repeated. In my opinion Manchester City should get a penalty at 0-0, and I believe that with 0-1, things would be totally different. They played great football in first 30 minutes. Creating 3 wonderful chances (as mentioned, in 1 situation should be penalty, but even if not. Sterling should react better in opportunity like this was). And after those chances.. punishment came. As in 4 of last 7 matches it happened that Manchester City's opponent scored from 1st shot on goal in the game. It's a crazy fact, but it's true. Of course haters of City's style will say that they should adapt etc., but with bringing Guardiola in the club, they should know that he will try to do everything, that team will be able to play in his way. And it's obvious that they will need time, but if we are honest - they are creating much more than enough chances to win the games. Except against Burnley and Crystal Palace, where they didn't even deserve to win, they created crazily number of chances in all other matches, including match against Chelsea. I need to admit, that I didn't like odds that much, but I went "into" the match anyway.

You can see highlights in solid quality HERE.

Caen 3-2 Lyon
Prediction: Lyon AH -0,5 @1,76

If match would be today or any other day I would have same prediction under same circumstances. I didn't even have good informations about Tolliso, who started the game! If I would know that in front of match, I would probably go with OL with 5-6 units. Just take a look how luckily Caen reach the first goal. 3 catastrophic passes, then ball on the flank, cross and unlucky Cornet scoring an own goal. Second goal of Caen came after penalty, for which is a good question if it was or not. I disagree with commentator, as I think that positioning of main referee was really bad as he was unable to see if Gonalons actually touched him or not, but well penalty was given and 2-0 for Caen. Then Lyon finally woke up. Diakhaby hit woodwork in 33rd minute and just two minutes later referee shows penalty for Lyon (again good question if decision was not to harsh). Then equalising goal with perfect timing just before halftime and I thought that Lyon will grab all three points easily now. But no, Caen scored 3rd goal in 61st minute, and after that we saw (believe or not) 7 solid chances of Lyon, but they were just not concentrated enough at finishing. They were better, having much much more chances, having more possession, being more dangerous, but Caen won and that's all that matters.

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