Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Post match analysis

Rough week-end! Analysing 8 matches, being really unlucky as Sevilla conceded in last second of the match and final result could be much better, but important is, that I am back on profitable tracks. So at the end I finished with 4 predictions won, 1 void and 3 lost. It could be 5/1/3, but well.

Bastia 1-1 Nice
Prediction: Nice AH -0,5 @2,52

Nice started match in pretty bad shape. Soquet made big mistake but Danis missed 100% opportunity. In 17th minute Bastia was one goal in front, and Nice started playing better after that. Soquet equalised from corner kick, and except some half chances till 63rd minute when Cahuzac received second yellow. Bastia changed to 5-3-2, which looked more like 5-5-0 and they were defending with all power for 30 minutes. I thought that they won't succeed as Nice started preparing some nice chances but they did. Nice also had lots of opportunities from free kicks from good positions, but Cyprien and Balotelli were not at their best. I need to say that I am more than satisfied with analysis, and even if result went wrong for me, odds were simply too high.

Las Palmas 1-1 Deportivo La Coruna
Prediction: Deportivo AH +0,5 @1,80

Las Palmas tried to play in their way, but as analysed they were facing lots of troubles without important players in midfield and as a result, Deportivo was able to steal lots of balls from them. Anyway both teams prepared some more chances, but as on match on Corsica, Las Palmas received red card and Deportivo had player more on the pitch for last 15 minutes but they were not able to score second one. 

Metz 2-0 Montpellier
Prediction: Metz AH +0,5 @1,85

First of all I need to say, that I am little bit angry on myself as I was thinking about picking narrow win of Metz with odds over 3, but then I decided for this much safer option with of course much smaller price. As analysed we were able to see lack of quality at away team, as they missed two key players Boudebouz (injury) and Sanson (transfer to OM). They were trying with many shots, but they were product of individual action and anyway they didn't create not even one really serious chance.

Bordeaux 1-0 Toulouse
Prediction: Toulouse AH +0,5 @1,833

Another match where we were able to see red card, but this time unfortunately not in favour of my prediction. In 40th second of the match, Bordeuax came in front but goal came pretty luckily. Anyway they were leading and defending well organised. Toulouse was the team who was trying more, coming to some half chances but that was all. After 42nd minute, when Bodiger received direct red card (maybe too harsh decision of referee), Toulouse was lost. They were trying a lot in second half, but lots of their actions ended with counter-attack of Bordeaux, who had few really good chances, including penalty, but result stayed the same. I need to say that it could be much different if Toulouse wouldn't stayed without defensive midfielder, but that's how it was and prediction was wrong. 

Athletic Bilbao 2-2 Atletico Madrid
Prediction: Atletico Madrid AH -0,5 @2,11

Even if Atletico was better, Basque club surprised me a little. I didn't expect them playing so solid without Benat in midfield. Anyway possession prediction was correct. Atletico also had more shots on targer, so another fact was analysed correct. They started great, with goal in 2nd minute and in 28th minute they could "finish" the game with goal of Carrasco but he missed really nice chance. Bilbao responded in 41th minute and half-time finished with tie. Home team needed 10 minutes in second half and De Marcos arrived in the box from second plan and scored for 2-1. Atletico equalised over really beautiful goal of Griezmann from distance, but they were not able to do something more. I think that I overestimated value of Benat and Aduriz in this team in front of their fans, and I will need to be more careful on next time. Anyway when we see Atletico in front in matches like this, it happens really rarely that they are letting points, but unfortunately it happened this time.

Osasuna 3-4 Sevilla
Prediction: Sevilla AH -1 @1,89

Without doubt the craziest match of the weekend, but at the end I was really really unlucky as Sevilla scored in 91st minute and my prediction would be green, but Osasuna scored 3rd goal in 93rd minute and at match finished right after the goal, so prediction was voided. Sevilla played solid in offensive, but there was lack of concentration at defending. Iborra scored "beautiful" own goal and even if they were much better team on the pitch (Osasuna passing accuracy was only 55%, so almost every second pass ended in Sevilla's possession). Possession as predicted was strongly on side of Sevilla, but as mentioned above, I was really unlucky at this pick. Still, I wouldn't change anything. In my opinion there was value and that's why I took it.

St. Etienne 2-1 Angers
Prediction: St. Etienne AH -0,5 @1,91

That was just another match where St. Etienne proved me how bad they are. Guys from Angers were not far from taking a point from this match. They started match with central defender Pavlović as main striker and he scored a header for 0-1. In second half, player about which I was talking about in analysis - Hamouma scored with lots of luckiness, while second goal of St. Etienne was scored with hand. People are saying that it's a referee's decision if this is a hand ball or not, but in my opinion it was. It's true that Keyta could score some minutes before from volley, and that St. Etienne started playing better after equalising, but anyway everyone know that Angers in this shape is mainly dangerous from free kicks from distance, as they have some tall players, pretty good in aerial duels and they had quite a lot of chances from those situations.

Eibar 0-4 Barcelona
Prediction: Barcelona AH -1 @1,884

I need to admit that Enrique negatively surprised me with lineup, putting Arda in midfield and Mathieu in defence, while letting Pique on the bench. Arda has shown that he can perform well, but on wing position where Enrique is somehow too big p... to rotate little bit more in offensive trio. Match started strangely, Eibar played pressing on Barca half, and after ugly "foul" and injury of Busquets (without foul, without card, nothing!) Barcelona needed to change things. Luckily Denis Suarez scored great goal from distance and that's how things became easier. Match was totally in control of Barcelona after that and even in first half they missed 2 100% chances. In second half they added 3 goals and proved that bookmakers made little mistake by giving Barcelona just 1,5 goals of handicap after both teams (but it specially affected Eibar) played 3rd match in 7 days.

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