Saturday, 7 January 2017

Real Betis - Leganes

PICK: Real Betis AH -0,5 @2,17 PINNACLE 4/10

Match between 14th and 16th teams of Spanish La Liga will be played on Estadio Benito Villamarín in Sevilla at 16:15.

Betis is coming to match after two defeats in row, but last one was in Copa del Rey, where in my opinion is pretty smart not to compete for them. They should be focused on Primera, to avoid relegation and become stable first league team. They will be without Joaquin and probably also Gutierrez, but all others are fully prepared for match. With Victor Sanchez they looks tactically pretty strong. He started playing with Italian 3-5-2 (5-3-2), but some matches they played also in 4-1-2-1-2 so it's not totally clear how they will face Leganes.

Leganes is coming to match after loosing against Valencia in Copa del Rey, but meanwhile Valencia already lost in CDR, at home against Celta Vigo with 1-4. In Primera they played three draws in row, they impressed me against Villarreal, but difference between today and the match on El Madrigal will be, that they will want to take all three points this time and played with different mentality. They are still without many important players (Szymanovski, Rico and Ibanez,  almost key figures of this team) while also first goalkeeper Herrerin is suspended for this match.

I think that opened odds at 2,00 were correct. 2,17 is too much and I really like it. I am giving home team around 50% to win the match so there is value. Even without Joaquin, they have Castro and Sanabria, also midfielder Petros is in really good form, while they have pretty solid goalkeeper in Adan as well. They played very good against Bilbao (beating them 1-0) and it is always tough to play against them on Benito Villamarin, with their amazing fans. I watched some matches of Leganes this season and they always made so many fouls in dangerous areas. For example against Villarreal, but they didn't took advantage of it. Betis has great set-piece taker in Castro and I wouldn't be surprised if match would be decided by goal from set-piece.

FT: 2-0

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