Friday, 3 February 2017

Metz - Marseille

PICK: Marseille AH -0,5 @1,93 PINNACLE 3/10
PICK: Marseille team totals over 1,5 @1,84 PINNACLE 3/10

Match between 19th and 6th placed team in Ligue 1 will be played on Stade Saint-Symphorien in Metz and it will start at 20:45 on Friday. Weather is stable for now (without rain) and it should be the same also for the time of the match.


Metz who has new weapon in Diabate will try to stop Marseille. With Erdinç, attack of Metz seems pretty solid, but other part of the team is too much below that. Approximately they are conceding 1,8 goals per game, but against stronger opponents goal number is much higher. Nice scored 4 times here, Monaco 7 times, even last placed Lorient scored twice here. They will miss both Cohade and Diagne, who received red cards against Angers and even if Sarr and Doukoure came back from ACN, I think that they will have serious problems with build up against high pressing of OM. Cohade was best player on the pitch in 2 of last 3 matches of Metz, against Montpellier (2-0 - both assists) and against Nice (0-0).

Atmosphere in Marseille is great. They bounced back after two ugly defeats against Lyon and Monaco with two wins over Montpellier (5-1) and Lyon (2-1 after e.t.). The one against OL was cup match and fans were able to see first minutes of Dimitri Payet on Velodrome which is another reason for being excited. Unfortunately Evra has picked up an injury, so Doria will probably start on his place and I believe that after he was the one who decided the winner against OL, he will be highly motivated to show that he deserves place in first eleven. Marseille started new project, bringing for very good players - Payet, Sanson, Evra and Sertic and Rudi Garcia will be able to rotate a lot with his squad without loosing too much quality on the pitch. They have mix between experienced team with young players and especially they are performing outstanding - Lopez, Zambo, also 24-year old Thauvin is still among younger players even though he has lot of experiences.

Another bet which I like here is over 2,5 goals, but I think that Marseille could win it without conceding as well. With Rolando they have tall, experienced player who can fight in aerial duels with Diabate, while ball will be strongly in Marseille's possession which will reduce possibility of creating chances. I know that I am writing about him too much, but again I need to say that Thauvin is simply too good for any defence in league and he will create at least 2 great chances individually. Also Cabella started playing much better, here is also Payet, well.. offensively Marseille is becoming real threat for whole league and in my opinion they can mix up things for Lyon's 4th place. Metz is in dangerous places, 1 point under relegation zone, but I am afraid that they will need to look for points elsewhere. Odds are as high probably because of possibility of tiredness, but I think that they will be just extra motivated after big win. Metz has one of the most porous defences in the league, while Marseille is scoring high numbers of goals with through balls.

FT: 1-0

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