Monday, 6 February 2017

Post match analysis

In overall I need to be satisfied with final result, as it was profitable week-end but with little bit of luck it could be better. I am satisfied as I didn't make any bigger mistake with missing any important fact of the game in analysis, but football was not on the side of my predictions. On 3 matches prediction was correct, while on 2 it wasn't. I need to admit that in half-time of Nantes - Nancy, my last analysed match, I was thinking that finally I will have week with 80% (4W / 1L), but than instead of leading 1-0, Djidji slipped and Nancy was in front. 

La Liga

Malaga 0-1 Espanyol
Prediction: Espanyol AH +0,5

My prediction here was that Espanyol won't lose the game. I could go with +0,25 to get higher odds, but I am satisfied with the decision as match could go in totally different direction. Malaga started really good, prepared 3 very good chances in first 15 minutes but than Piatti decided to try with shot from big distance, Kameni was not well prepared for the shot and ball finished in the net. After that Malaga needed few minutes to recover "mentally" but in overall they were much better team, who deserved at least a point here. I am satisfied with my point of view in analysis, as I was pointing on wrong settled odds here.

Valencia 0-4 Eibar
Prediction: Eibar AH +0,75

My prediction here was again, that underdog won't lose. In this case we would receive half stake back even if Valencia would win only for 1 goal, so as I wrote in analysis, for my those odds were really valuable. In first 10 minutes Valencia tried with some shots from distance, but quickly we were able to see that Eibar is at least equal opponent here. After 20 minutes they pushed in gear higher and they needed 7 minutes to score first goal of the match. At the end of the half we've seen red card for Valencia end penalty for Eibar and match was practically over.

Ligue 1 

Metz 1-0 Marseille
Prediction: Marseille AH -0,5 + Marseille team totals over 1,5

Tough numbers on scoresheet for my prediction. Marseille started well, even with Gomis on the bench, what I wasn't expecting, they created 2 nice chances to be in front, but Sarr in Thauvin missed it. As mentioned in analysis, they were making a lot of problems on the wings also with through balls, but ball didn't and didn't want to go in the net. Even when it looked that they will be finally in front, first goal was disallowed because of offside while second was stopped by the post. In last 15-20 minutes Metz started feeling that they have chance to win and they did it. Jouffre who came in as substitution scored from free kick, but goal was actually big mistake of goalkeeper Pele who shouldn't have problems with this shot, but his anticipation was totally incorrect and ball finished in the net. It's hard to say that I was wrong with analysis as Marseille was better team for 60-70 minutes of the game, I was right about huge advantage in possession (29%-71%), also passing success of Metz was only little bit above the average, which means that almost every second pass of them finished in the possession of Marseille. But well, that's football, ball is rounded and even though my thinking in analysis was correct, prediction wasn't.

Dijon 1-3 PSG
Prediction: PSG AH -1,5

PSG did it. They won another match with more than a goal difference, but they were again far from good enough in finishing. They started badly, with big mistake of Kurzawa, which could lead to goal of Dijon, but luckily post saved them. After that they started playing better, they scored and match looked fine for them as long as Rabiot didn't lose the ball on 35m from goal, and 1 pass of Dijon was enough for 1-1. They were trying and trying in second half, they had 21 shots on the goal of Dijon, but they needed to wait till 81st and 84th minute, that they finally solved the match with goals of Silva and Cavani. Even if it looks like pretty lucky won prediction, I am satisfied with it as PSG were better here and they fully deserved this win. Difference in possession was 28%-72%, Dijon had only 1 shot on the target and that's proving that my thinking about the match was correct.

Nantes 0-2 Nancy
Prediction: Nantes AH -0,5

Match which ended totally different as predicted, but everyone who has seen the match has probably the same opinion as me - Nantes should win this match! They started very good, they were creating chances, looked really dangerous from time to time, holding the ball well, also defending really solid, but they were simply not good enough in front of goal. Goalkeeper of Nancy, Chernik finished as one of the best players of the match, but he made few poor interceptions but he was not punished for them. In half time (0-0) I thought that Nantes can not lose this game. We were able to see tiredness in Nancy's team, they made crazy mistake in defence which offered Stepinski 100% chance but he decided to dribble the goalkeeper and simulate for penalty instead of scoring from clear chance. Some minutes after that Djidji, till this minute one of the best players on the pitch with his calm interceptions, good technique, smart plays, has made big mistake which was punished from Dale and Dia (assist + goal). After that Nantes fall, and smart, experienced team of Nancy took an advantage and all three points. I can not be disappointed by analysis as Nantes should be at least a goal if not two in front and match would be totally different if they would score first. But they were missing 100% chances, while Nancy scored from his first real (allowed) chance.

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