Monday, 13 February 2017

Post match analysis

As it's written in last post, it was really unlucky round for me, with many referee's decisions against my predictions, but analysis were mostly correct and after post match analysis I didn't find any bigger mistake. As mentioned below, maybe stake on Bastia could be smaller as they are really poor team, used to to ugly fouls, but nothing else. New winners are coming soon... I strongly believe that luck in sports betting is 50/50, so it will come around. Sooner or later, referee's decisions and strange situations will be in my favour.

Bordeaux 0-3 PSG
Prediction: PSG AH -0,75 @1,83

I started week perfectly with easy win of PSG, when in the match happened almost all predicted things, written in analysis. They were even able to substitute Verratti, Cavani and Di Maria and still smartly controlling the match.

Toulouse 4-1 Bastia
Prediction: Bastia AH +0,5 @2,01

Odds movement has quickly tried to shown me that I am wrong, but after seeing the match, I am not that convinced that I was wrong, even if final result looks like easy win of Toulouse. First dangerous chance was for Bastia from corner - it looked that ball was already in the goal, but Lafont saved it. All in all I can say that match was not that far from equal, specially after goal of Bastia for 2-1, it looked that they are back, but looks that they are simply not able to play without ugly fouls. Specially Cahuzac, experienced player but that was his 3rd red card in last 10 matches, and with 10 men they were simply not capable to come back. In 76th minute they added another red card, this time foul for penalty and match was finished. I think that my analysis was not that far away from reality, in my opinion I didn't to any mistake at analysing the match, maybe stake could be smaller as Bastia is really one of the poorest if not the poorest team in the Ligue 1 and I shouldn't trust them with 4 units.

Villarreal 1-1 Malaga
Prediction: Villarreal AH -0,5 @1,83

Another match where red card was against me. In my opinion it was undeserved, as this foul of Soriano was far from direct red. Even if match was full of strange decision (in my opinion Spain has one of the worst referee's in the top leagues). In second half they pressed stronger, they created more chances, being in possession, having better pass. success, but unfortunately when they were pretty close to score 2nd goal, referee decided to shown red card to Soriano, and match was somehow "finished". All in all, I think that odds were valuable on Villarreal. 

Rennes 2-2 Nice
Prediction: Nice AH 0 @2,01

Right after PSG, it was one of my favourite picks for this round, as Nice was totally underestimated by the side of bookmakers. One of the reasons was of course missing of Balotelli, but I explained my opinion in analysis so I won't repeat myself. Nice started strangely, Rennes scored quick, beautiful goal, but as I wrote in analysis, their main weapon were counterattacks and nothing else. They were poor in buildup, I was sure that Nice will return and win, but luckily for Rennes they scored second goal and even if it was fair goal even it came from strange situation. First assistant referee raised the flag, signalised offiside and then after a while he changed his opinion and after several talks with main referee, they decided that they will admit the goal and that things were even worse for them, Plea injured himself and as Balotelli was not in squad, they were without two main attackers. Anyway, their midfield was that much better, that they were able to create enough chances and they came back to match with 2 goals, but unfortunately they didn't scored third one, so I need to be satisfied with void here. I am satisfied with analysis, satisfied with odds and also with stake here. As mentioned above, it was an unlucky round.

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