Monday, 20 February 2017

Post match analysis

Comment of the round: I think that everyone who saw any of those matches knows that "god of fortune" was harsh with me this time. Just take a look of match between Valencia and Bilbao, or Lyon and Dijon, and you'll know what I am talking about... After post match analysis I found out that I didn't make any crucial mistake, will improve little mistakes which are mentioned above, but otherwise, I know that I just need to continue and results will come by themselves. 

Ligue 1

Bastia 1-1 Monaco
Prediction: Monaco AH -0,5

As you can see even in short highlights, Bastia was really lucky in this match. They scored with help of goal line technology but otherwise they were just poor. Monaco had many solid chances to score, but they were missing everything. As you can see in statistics, they were far better team, with much bigger possession, much more chances created, but goalkeeper of Bastia - Leca had one of the best performances in his career, saving some impossible situations. Analysis was fine, odds high enough and I am satisfied with everything except the final result.


Marseille 2-0 Rennes
Prediction: Marseille AH -0,5

At least one match which finished as predicted. Marseille was simply better, Rennes was far from being adequate opponent, and even without Gomis, OM was good enough in offensive, they created many chances and the final score could be even higher. 

Lorient 0-1 Nice
Prediction: over 2,5 goals 

Match where my prediction was that we'll see a lot of good chances and consequence of many chances should be goals. First part happened, while for second part both goalkeepers were fantastic, referee's decisions were not on my side, and match surprisingly ended with only 1 goal. We saw more than 20 shots on the match, and 5-6 of them were or brilliantly saved by goalkeepers (Lecomte and Cardinale) or even by players arm in penalty box (Dealbert), but without punishment. Everyone who has seen the match knows that odds on over here were overrated and that on long term we will be in profit with. Lorient pressed incredibly but fortune was not on their side. I am satisfied with analysis here, as we've seen really high number of good chances and in my opinion I was just unlucky here.

Olympique Lyon 4-2 Dijon (HT 1-1)
Prediction: Lyon AH -0,5 1st half 

Lyon scored early in the game and it looked that it will be a easy match for Lyon as they were in possession and missing two solid chances, but in 30th minute Dijon had a corner kick, which was bounced back to Balmont who made another cross and Tavares headed the ball to the post from which ball bounced into the goal and it was 1-1. After that Lyon press stronger and created 4 big chances in last 15 minutes of 1st half. Two were wasted by Lacazette, while other two were wasted by Depay. He missed whole goal even from 6-7 meters (you can see it on highlight video at 1:25), and first half was finished. I would like to say that I was wrong with analysis but it's not true. Lyon missed impossible chances, they should finish this match in first half but they didn't as they were really poor at finishing even from positions where is harder to miss than to score, while Dijon scored from their only good chance in first half - if we can even call it a chance. It was a cross from side, which was converted to a goal by header.

La Liga

Granada 4-1 Real Betis
Prediction: under 2,25

I need to admit, that I made mistake here. First of all, this match was not on my list (I am making the list of matches, which are interesting for my eye). Anyway, I analysed the match lately, less than 2 hours before the match. Main reason was that Betis was without Ceballos. So I was mostly focused on Betis, that they will be unable to do something in this match as they will miss their main creative midfielder, and that they will start the match defensively. On the other hand I didn't dig too much in Granada's lineup and my opinion based too much on last statistics. Anyway second goal came after stupidity, big mistake of Mandi in 28th minute while only 3 minutes later shot of Mehdi was saved by Adan, but ball bounced on foot of Pereira for 3-0. Even if stake was the smallest, I should avoid of this match as Granada is in position where they simply needs to rush into things, and it was just a matter of time when they will explode. Even if all in all in this match we've seen only 15 shots, with high converting ratio which is not something what happened often in football, I should be more careful with this match.

Real Sociedad 0-1 Villarreal
Prediction: both teams to score 

That was match where I thought that the bigger problem will be if Villarreal will score, as they started match pretty uninterested. In 3rd minute Navas almost scored after pass from free kick, but ball just missed the left post. Even if in first half we didn't see too many chances, and the match was pretty boring, second half started differently. Bakambu came to 100% chance after mistake of Rulli in 52nd minute - Rulli left the ball out of his hand and reaction of Bakambu, who could run away with ball, or shot normally on the goal was too poor as he tried to score from turnaround and missed the goal. 5 minutes later Vela missed by few centimetres from 16-18m free kick; one minute later cross from left side and header of Juanmi missed the goal for few centimetres again. In 66th Cheryshev and Bakambu missed the opportunity to go 2on1 because of miss understanding. In 75th Bruno hit the crossbar from - attention 5 metres, ball bounced and came to Musacchio who missed half volley from pretty similar position. After many missed chances in second half first goal came in 94th minute after cross from left side, but it was too late for possible equaliser. First half has proving me wrong, but second was totally different. Even though I need to be more careful with Villarreal and Real Sociedad as both teams are pretty hard to predict.

Valencia 2-0 Athletic Bilbao
Prediction: over 2,5 goals

I was surprised by odds offered by bookmakers and even if they won, I think that after the match they perfectly knew that they made mistake here. This match was even crazier than the one between Lorient and Nice. We were able to see 30 shots in the match, with both sides producing half of them! That's really not something what happens often in football, and that's why it's even more unbelievable that we saw only two goals. Even if Valverde started with Aduriz and Inaki on the bench, I think that my analysis was perfectly fine here. I predicted open match from both sides, with lots of chances and thats exactly what happened. First big chance was already in 4th minute (for Valencia), second in 12th for Bilbao and two minutes later Valencia scored for 1-0. 10 minutes later San Jose (Bilbao) scored, but he was in offside. In 44th minute another great situation for Valencia to score, ended with ball in hands of Iraizoz. In last seconds of 1st half Valencia scored 2nd goal, and after what I saw in first half I was million precent sure that this match cannot finish with 2 goals. In second half Valverde responded with Inaki and Aduriz. In first 5 minutes Valencia had 2 nice chances, but they were not able to put the ball behind the back of Iraizoz. The 65th try of Munir, just two minutes later Nani dribbled into the middle, but his shot from approx. 8 meters was saved by Iraizoz. In 75th Inaki didn't score from 1on1 situation with Alves. 3 minutes later free kick for Bilbao from side, and Alves saved try of Raul Garcia. In 83rd Nani tried from side again, but missed the goal. In 85th Bakkali passed to Zaza who missed another solid opportunity to scored 3rd goal of the match. All in all I need to say that I was simply unlucky here, but matches like this happened and I need to move on. 

Anyone who missed a lot of money on this match.. it's maybe better not to see the highlights.

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