Monday, 27 February 2017

Post match analysis

Much better round this week, with 2 wins, 2 half wins and 2 loses. I am satisfied with analysis, specially with the one on Nantes-Dijon. I need to admit that I was actually pretty sure that Lille will go through as winner, but in last 10 minutes they "decided" to lose the match. 

La Liga

Villarreal 2-3 Real Madrid
Prediction: Real Madrid AH -0,75 half won

Real Madrid overcome result after being 2-0 behind, and I need to say thank you to the referee for the penalty. I don't know why Villarreal stopped playing after 2nd scored goal, because if they would continue with high pressing they would have bigger chances to get something out of the game in my opinion. Well, Bale scored, there was overlap on wings of Real Madrid as predicted in analysis, and all in all Real Madrid won and brought me some profit. It's a good question if it was good call or not, to go with Real in this match, but match is over, I knew how tough it is to play against the Villarreal, but Real Madrid has shown their strength in last half hour, which was with let's be honest, little bit of help of referees, enough to win the match.

p.s. one of followers warned me about one mistake in analysis. El Madrigal doesn't exist anymore, as they replaced the name with Estadio de la Ceramica. 

Ligue 1

Nantes 3-1 Dijon
Prediction: Nantes AH -0,75

First bet of the week satisfied me as I was totally right about the match. Dijon scored after individual mistake of Dubois, who score a pretty strange own goal, while Dijon had problems with buildup for majority of the match. First goal already in third minute came after intercepted pass in middle third of the pitch. All in all, Nantes was better team in the match, and they fully deserved the points here.

Guingamp 1-2 Monaco
Prediction: Monaco AH -0,5

Odds jumped crazily in the day of the match, and I was right to take it. It's true that Guingamp was far from not being dangerous, but Monaco is simply better team. First goal came after free kick and Glik tap-in. When Monaco is in front, it is always very tough to equalise, as they are enormously quick in counters. Second half was somehow calmer, but Mbappe was to quick in 86th minute, so the only chance to stop him was with foul in the box. Fabinho converted penalty with "panenka". Guingamp came back with goal of Didot in additional time, but it was simply to late to equalise. I am satisfied that I took those odds, as I think that we won't be able to see odds above 1,80 on Monaco against teams like Guingamp is.

Rennes 1-0 Lorient
Prediction: Lorient AH +0,50

Lorient started extremely good. With two decent chances, they could found themselves in the lead, but than one mistake which lead to assist and goal of Sio. After that Lorient was far from what I expected and Rennes stopped them totally and they could even win with higher result. Looks that I will need to calm down with Lorient, even though I still think that their attack is amazing, but their defence is letting them down. 

Lyon 5-0 Metz
Prediction: Lyon 1st half AH -0,75 half won

I guess I took the wrong half here. Metz even had first chance of the match and they should have been in front, but luck was on my side this time. Even though Lyon play much much better, it could happen that Metz would score and then defend with all possible strengths, so it would be hard with half-time call. Anyway, Lyon missed 3 decent chances again and luckily 4th one went in so my prediction is half win. 

Lille 2-3 Bordeaux
Prediction: Lille AH -0,25 

I need to admit that I didn't count on crazy Ounas performance, really not. I think that no one did. After Eder overcome the result and put Lille in front, I thought that it will be hard to lose this prediction, but Bordeaux deserved it. Even if first goal of Ounas came after lucky bounce, Bordeaux didn't deserve to lose the match and in finish of the match they were simply good enough to win all 3 points. I expected totally different Lille, specially in defence. Looks that Bielsa will have big problems next season. 

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