Thursday, 9 February 2017

Toulouse - Bastia

PICK: Bastia AH +0,5 @2,01 PINNACLE 4/10

Match between 10th and 19th placed team in Ligue 1 will be played on Stade Municipal in Toulouse and it will start at 20:00 on Saturday.


Toulouse is coming to match after tough match in Lorient, from where they brought a point. Lorient was trying to play, to create opportunities, but Toulouse was waiting for counter-attacks and they were pretty dangerous in this way. Delort scored again and played solid, but it was not enough to win on Le Moustoir.

Bastia match was cancelled due to unacceptable weather conditions, which means that they will be much fresher than home team. They are on 19th place and gap will slowly start becoming bigger and bigger between teams on safe positions and teams down there. Lorient looks much better than Bastia, but they are still in front of them. Every single point will be important and they will need to fight for that. They won't try to be in possession, they will wait for their chances and as they were able to stop Nice twice, even with player less for 30 minutes on last time, and as they were able to beat Rennes on Rhoazon Park, I believe that they are able to make things complicated for Toulouse as well.

Bookmakers favorise Toulouse, giving them more than 50% to win the match, but in my eyes, this match is again much closer. I would set it on 45/35/25, which means that in ah-0,5/+0,5 market this is 45/55% match, and for covering 55% I can get odds 2,01. Bastia will be fresh, normally prepared, while Toulouse is coming to match from tough match from Lorient. They're weekend was not normal with trainings, while Bastia even had one day off somehow (because of postponed match). Crivelli, St. Maxime, Diallo & co. are for sure able to prepare a surprise, meanwhile Toulouse is not adapted on 3 matches in 7 days and I wouldn't be surprised if Bastia will surprisingly win on Municipal.

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