Friday, 31 March 2017

Guingamp - Nancy

PICK: Guingamp AH -0,5 @1,862 PINNACLE 4/10

After international break, we are coming into final rounds of Ligue 1. 10th placed Guingamp will host 18th Nancy on Stade du Roudourou. Match will start today at 19:00, main referee will be Miguelgorry.

Guingamp went on break with painful defeat against Angers (3-0). As coach Kombouare said, they didn't play bad in first half. They should have been in lead in first 45 minutes, as they created some good chances. Now they are coming back home, back to Roudorou, where they are quite solid. With only Bodmer, Benezet and Levêque missing, Kombouare can count on all his key players. First match in Nancy ended with 0-2 for Guingamp, even if they played without two important players - Briand and Didot. On press conference, home coach said, that this will be first match against the team who is starting this final run of matches with big need of points. He said that his team should be aware, that if they will be careless, they can quickly jump into positions where avoiding relegation won't be as sure as it looks right now, when they are 8 places in front of 18th position. He said that they need to bounce back after catastrophic second half in Angers.

Nancy is coming to match with many injury concerns. Badilla, Aït Bennaser, Mandanne, Robic, Coulibaly, N'Guessan are all out of squad due to injury, while Mabella and veteran Pedretti won't play because of suspension. Coach Correa found himself in tough position. They were in comfortable position in last match against Lorient, when they were leading 2-0 till 66th minute, leading 2-1 till 86th minute and at the end of the match, they lost 2-3. Not that they lost 3 or at least 1 point, they lost against direct opponent and gave Lorient opportunity to get into the relegation fight. Right now, Nancy is only 3 points in front of 19th and 20th Bastia and Lorient, and even if they are in big need of points, I think that they will have big problems on Roudourou tonight.

We are coming to those "must win" matches for teams, who are battling for relegation. Odds will be crazily low on teams in need of points, specially later, but in my opinion, quality of football won't change too much, even though if one team need points, while other one looks totally fine. If Guingamp fails in this match, next league match is in Paris, where I think that they won't have chances (specially not because they've beaten them at home). Then at home against Toulouse and away against Lille, another team who will need points to avoid relegation. On paper, match against Nancy is among the easiest for last 8 matches and in my opinion, they will get all three points here. I believe that Guingamp will try to put the ball on the ground, as Nancy is pretty strong in aerial duels, specially in matches where Diarra plays defensive midfielder role, but without Bennasser, I think that they will lack of creativity in midfield which could be key fact of the game. Nancy will try to wait for counters, but in my opinion, they will have lot of problems with defending their wing positions. That's the part, where they are most vulnerable, while Guingamp with Salibur (6 goals, 2 assists), Coco (4 goals, 2 assists),... likes to attack over the wings, to play widely and create 1on1 situations for mentioned players, while also both full backs Ikoko and especially Marçal are coming higher to help in attack. Then there is also Briand (9 goals, 4 assists) in the box and they are really difficult to cover.

FT: 1-0

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