Friday, 3 March 2017

Metz - Rennes

PICK: Metz AH 0 @2,13 SBO 5/10

Match between 17th and 8th placed team will be played on Stade Saint-Symphorien in Metz, and will start at 20:45 on Saturday.

Metz is coming to match after disappointing defeat in Lyon, where they lost 5-0. Everything could be different if they wouldn't miss empty goal from 1-2 meters in first half but after this chance, Lyon trashed them. We need to consider that Metz played without Cohade and Diabate, main players in last matches, and in this match against Rennes we'll watch different Metz. Not just Diabate and Cohade, also Sar is back in squad and offense of Metz will look much better. 
Squad of Metz: 
Gardiens : Didillon, Oberhauser.
Défenseurs : Milan, Falette, Bisevac, Signorino, Balliu, Rivierez.
Milieux de terrain : Mandjeck, Jouffre, Sarr, Lejeune, Nguette, Fallou, Cohade, Doukouré.
Attaquants : Erding, Diabaté.

Rennes won their home match against Lorient (1-0) and even if Lorient started solid, Rennes deserved this win as they were better for bigger part of the match. They are close to European places now, but I think that they don't have enough quality to fight with Marseille or Bordeaux. Christian Gourcuff will miss Mexer, Mendes, Chantome, Janvier and Amalfitano, but is welcoming back his son Yoann.
Squad of Rennes: 
Gardiens: Costil, M'Bolhi 
Defenseurs: Bansebani, Cavare, Baal, Danze, Gnagnon, Afonso
Milieux de terrain: Fernandes, Andre, Hanou, Prcic, Gourcuff
Attaquants: Mubele, Said, Sio, Diakhaby, Kalulu

In my opinion this match will be closer to 50/50 than odds are showing. That's why I see value in odds above 2,10 on draw no bet of home team. Because of recent incidents there will be some punishment, if I am not wrong, eastern part of stadium will be closed, but they simply need points in battle to avoid relegation. With Diabata and Cohade back in the squad, this team will look much stronger in attack and I think that they could surprise better positioned club. Anyway, Rennes won only 8 points more than Metz, while Metz has one match less. Between 8th and 14th place there is only 5 points difference and things can change really quickly.

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