Tuesday, 7 March 2017

Post match analysis

As I finished January in low profit numbers, and specially because February was first month with negative score I decided to take a closer look on my previous predictions. I separated all the types of bets, to see on which market I am losing. I found out that I am most successful with asian handicaps, while over/under lines are not profitable. Anyway, January and February are always two toughest months in football season, so I am looking forward to profitable finish of the season.

March started well, but Sevilla took 5 units yesterday so profit is smaller than it was. Anyway, I am pleased with first week, as we had some surprising results.

Granada 2-1 Alaves
Prediction: Over 2,5 goals

It was obvious from the start of the match, that Granada felt that they can win this match and get 3 important points in fight to avoid relegation. They started match good, created some good chances through wings and in 39' they finally scored the first goal. As mentioned in analysis, Alaves is not playing that defensively in matches like this and that was the reason why we were able to see many chances. We've seen three goals already after 10 minutes of second half. 

Sevilla 1-0 Athletic Bilbao
Prediction: Sevilla AH -0,75 hw

Sevilla started well, prepared two nice chances already in first 10 minutes. Jovetić even missed the penalty 3 minutes later but Iborra was first on bounced ball and put Sevilla in lead. First chance for Bilbao came in 25th minute, when post saved Andalusians. In first part of second half Sevilla played good again, preparing some chances - Vietto and Mariano missed from close range, while second part of 2nd half, was all about Bilbao. Sevilla was in deep crisis for last 20 minutes but luckily they hold it and won the match.

Las Palmas 5-2 Osasuna
Prediction: Las Palmas AH -1

Quite interesting match. Las Palmas started well, Jese scored for 1-0 in 7th minute, then Lemos had two great free kicks but Osasuna scored twice in 7 minutes anyway. Las Palmas was much much better, creating chance after chance, without any problems. Anyway Osasuna had chance to extend their lead on 1-3, but they missed and after that Las Palmas started their party. We saw one of the most awkward own goals in the match and one goal which was offside in my opinion, but Las Palmas was much much better and in my opinion they totally deserved to win the match.

Alaves 1-1 Sevilla
Prediction: Sevilla AH -0,5

In my opinion Sevilla finished their battle for the tittle with this result. They started well, but anyway letting Alaves too much of space and they could easily came in front. In 22nd, Ben Yedder extended his great performances against Basque clubs and put Andalusians in the lead. In 38th Iborra and Ben Yedder went to 2on1 counter attack but finish of Iborra was far from decent. As against Bilbao, Sevilla crashed in second half, this time too soon and Alaves started coming to chance to often. First one in 53', second in 55', third in 65' and in 75' they finally scored. Right after the goal Iborra had another great chance but he missed from position from where he scored many goals. Alaves could win the match as they missed 1on1 situation and Sevilla can thank to Sergio Rico that they won at least 1 point on Mendizorrotza.

Bordeaux 1-1 Lyon
Prediction: Over 3 goals

Weather conditions were tough, but anyway we were able to see some decent chances in the match. First goal came already in 16th minute. After that Depay had nice chance, but Carraso saved it. First chance in second half was saved by Lopes, than Lacazette wasted an awkward chance for him. 11 minutes before an end of the match, Mamana scored from pass from set-piece and match finished with 1-1. We were able to see enough created chances, regardless the weather and I think that I should be more careful as line was already higher. I took it because in case of exact 3 goals, prediction would be voided, but anyway.

Metz 1-1 Rennes
Prediction: Metz AH 0

Early in the match, there was pretty smelly situation as referee decided to punish Diabate for diving, even if I think that there was contact with knees and it should be penalty for Metz. They hit crossbar later on, and just few minutes before the half time, they were rewarded for good performance and Diabate scored for 1-0. In second, Rennes started more offensive as Gourcuff send on attacker Said instead of midfielder Fernandes, but Metz was still in the charge of the match. They hit another crossbar few minutes after substitution, but last minutes of the match were in Rennes hands. Anyway it looked that Metz will hold the 1-0 result, but Said scored in last minute of the match which meant that my prediction is voided.

Montpellier 1-1 Guingamp
Prediction: Over 2,5 goals

Match looked as both teams will be satisfied with 0-0, as we didn't see almost anything special in first half. Things changed in second half. Mounie scored first goal on the match, and right after that Salibur found Luca Deux in great position for goal, but Hilton blocked it. We've seen some decent interceptions by both goalkeepers till 85th minute when Briand scored an equaliser.

Lorient 1-4 Marseille
Prediction: Over 2,5 goals

It looks that Lorient is waving to the Ligue 1. "Tired" Marseille was fresh enough to beat them. It's true that first two goals came after corner kick, specially second one, the one from Payet was amazing and half-time finished with 2 goals. Second half started with great chance for Sanson who hit the crossbar, but ayway OM needed only 10 minutes to score another pair of goals and match was finished. 

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