Monday, 13 March 2017

Post match analysis

Comment of the round: Amazing weekend (83,33% win rate). 

Ligue 1

Nice 2-2 Caen
Prediction: Nice AH -0,75

First and last missed pick of the round. As analysed, danger of Caen is in crosses with big guys in the box, so Nice needed to stop only that, but they didn't. It was one of the worst matches of Dante (both goals are on his arms) and Caen was 2-0 in front right after start of the second half. That things were even worse for them, Wylan Cyprien ugly injured himself in 56th minute and Nice was 2 goals down and without their most important player. They were anyway better, Caen was focused only on defending and Nice succeeded to score two goals and at the end they almost turn over the match as referee Letexier made mistake not to whistle penalty after clear handball at the end of the match. I think that analysis was right, I would call it again as I think that Dante won't play as bad as this time many times. 



Marseille 3-0 Angers
Prediction: Marseille AH -0,75

As written in analysis, I like to bet against average teams in good row. Angers was pretty unlucky as referee made mistake to call a foul which Marseille converted to goal (amazing goal of Thauvin), but all in all Marseille deserved their win. Angers was trying to put themselves into good position to score, but almost all their attacks finished with decent chance from counters of OM. 



Guingamp 5-0 Bastia
Prediction: Guingamp AH -0,5

Since 1st second of the match, Guingamp was much much stronger team. Maximine was trying to make something individually, but that was all from away's side. On the other hand, it could be 3-0 already in first half as Guingamp missed some amazing chances. Half time ended with 0-0, but everyone who was watching the match knew what will happen. In second half, Guingamp started trashing Corsicans and at the end, they could be happy that it was "only" 5 goals difference. I am satisfied with analysis, picking up solid odds on home win, but maybe I should go with handicap and higher odds, as this team of Bastia, with so many missing players wouldn't be in top3 not even in second league.



Rennes 1-1 Dijon
Prediction: Dijon team totals over 0,75 @2,09

As mentioned in analysis, I was thinking about Dijon AH +0,5 here as well, but at the end I decided to pick goal of Dijon. Regarding the chances in this match, Dijon maybe even deserved to win the match as they created some nice opportunities to score, but goalkeeper of Rennes, Costil (no it's not Giroud with goalkeeper gloves on the video) saved all of them and deserved to be man of the match at the end.



La Liga

Espanyol 4-3 Las Palmas
Prediction: Over 2,5 goals

As analysed, Las Palmas has problems with defending good headers and Espanyol scored first one right in this way. During the match, they had 2 or 3 good chances to score with headers... All in all, I am totally satisfied with both, analysis and prediction as match was considered won already in first half.



Celta Vigo 0-1 Villarreal
Prediction: Villarreal AH 0

In matches like this one was, we can always expect that team who is playing with some reserves will impress in first minutes. Celta had some chances, but minute after minute, Villarreal was taking the control in their hands. It's true that they scored pretty lucky goal, but they created 2 or 3 more decent chances and anyway our prediction was secured with draw option.

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