Thursday, 6 April 2017

Dijon - Bastia

PICK: Dijon AH -0,5 @1,97 PINNACLE 4/10

In one of most important matches of 32nd round will be played on Stade Gaston-Gérard in Dijon. 17th placed home team will host last placed Bastia who has only 4 points less, and as midfielder of Dijon - Jordan Marié said, this match counts 6 points, not just 3.

Dijon is on winless run for 6 matches in row. First they lost in Lyon, then in Nantes, then at home against Nice, and then they finally reached a point in Rennes (1-1). In last home match they lost against St. Etienne, even if draw would be more fair result. Regardless of bad obvious bad form, I believe that last result - draw in Marseille gave them some confidence and in my opinion, Bastia is exact opponent against who they should win. I am still unsure about the information of Abeid, if he is suspended for this match or not, but Diony is coming back, so with attacking duo Tavares and Diony in front of their fans, I think that Dijon will have a big advantage in this match. It is unclear if Balmont will be prepared for whole match, but he participated on trainings this week, so his situation is getting better. 

Bastia lost last 7 away matches, with goal difference 23-2! With St. Maximine they have one player on who they rely, but one player cannot save this poor team. They had millions of problems with suspensions as they are ultra aggressive team, received incredible 13 red cards this season. Statistically they are scoring 0,8 goals per match, so less than a goal, which is also the reason why they are where they are - on last position. They can count on points at home, on Armand-Césari stadium, where pitch conditions are disastrous, which somehow suits them, as they are not playing too much of football and is easier to defend in this way. For example Monaco missed dozens of passes, specially in first half hour of the match. Defeat against Lille in last match finished their run of draws at home (5 in row) and as Lille is among the teams who are fighting to avoid the relegation, disappointment in Bastia locker room was even bigger.

We can expect aggressive match, with lots of harsh tackles, which is something totally normal as it comes for match of Corsicans. Dijon is aware, that this is first "match of the season" for them. With defeat, they are throwing themselves into rough relegation battle, with draw they are letting Bastia down there on 26 points, but problem is, that they will still be on only 30 points and with possible wins of Lorient or Nancy, they are going one or two places lower, which means that they are on 18th or 19th spot. Only result which counts for them is win and hoping that Lorient and Nancy won't beat Lyon and Rennes. Don't get me wrong; win won't calm them down neither as fight will be really rough as mentioned above, but it will bring some peace in front of next match, which will be in Monaco. Everyone knows that Monaco is fighting to win the league, and even if it will be during Champions league matcher period, they will play with strong squad and in my opinion Dijon is without chances on Stade Louis II. Dijon might have problems with Maximine, but not as big as Bastia will have with both Tavares and Diony. Bastia is pretty weak when it comes to defending crosses, and if Marquinhos and Thiago Silva were unable to cover Tavares, than Bastia won't succeed neither. Dijon knows how to play well-organised on matches like this and I believe that they will win and open the exit doors of Ligue 1 for Bastia.

FT: 1-2

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