Friday, 14 April 2017

Metz - Caen

PICK: Metz AH -0,25 @2,16 PINNACLE 3/10

On Saturday evening, 15th Metz will host 16th placed Caen on their Saint-Symphorien in Longeville-lès-Metz. Only three points are between those two teams, and with win, Metz would make a important step in relegation battle, which has "officially" started.

Metz lost last two matches with the same result, 3-0. First was at home against Lyon, while second one was in Bordeaux, so against both teams from top5 of league and even if I didn't expect 3 goals difference, it was unreal to expect something big from those two matches. In next 5 matches, they will have 4 of them against teams who are somehow all in this relegation battle for now (Caen, Lorient, Nancy, Lille) and if they will jump on 38 points after match with Caen, things will be much much easier for them. Assou-Ekotto will miss the match because of suspension, while Cohade picked up a knock in Bordeaux. Another bad news is that Diabate missed mid-week training due to illness. That's the reason, why my stake is only 3 units, but I strongly believe that regarding the importance of the match, both players will be included in the lineup of Hinschberger. They are playing against PSG in midweek and I think that some of important players might be rested in this match, as they are going to Lorient on next weekend.

Caen is still among my 2 favourites for relegation. With their poor buildup, counting more or less only on crosses on Santini or Rodelin, they simply haven't convinced me. Da Silva is coming back after suspension, but because of same reason, they will miss other important experienced defender Alaeddine Yahia. Their injury list is still pretty long as well. Last player who joined the list is Frederic Guilbert, who has an important role in the team. He injured his shoulder in the match against Montpellier, and he will probably miss whole finish of the season. 

It's true that both teams suffered some defeats lately, but on one hand we have Metz, who lost two matches against two teams from top5, while on the other hand we have team who lost 4 of last 5 matches, and except matches with Monaco and Nice, they lost against Montpellier, Lorient and Angers. Three teams more or less around them or behind them on the league table. As I have already said many times, Caen is mainly counting on crosses & headers, but in defence of Metz, there is Guido Milan, 194cm tall Italian, who is strong in aerial duels, and Santini is facing the tough matchup. Metz likes to attempt crosses as well, especially since signing Cheick Diabate, another 194cm tall striker, who is best scorer of the team. His all 5 goals were scored on Symphorien, and he scored at least in each second home match this season. He didn't score against Lyon, so... With Cohade and Diabate, I think that this Metz, especially at home is a decent side and I think that they will get things done.

FT: 2-2  half lost

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