Saturday, 29 April 2017

Metz - Nancy

PICK: Metz AH 0 @1,88 PINNACLE 3/10

On Saturday evening, Metz will host Nancy on Symphorien in "derby Lorrain". Even if I am not big fan of those stats, I will publish them here: derby was played 79 times. Metz won 34 matches, Nancy won 26 of them, while 20 times match finished with draw.

Metz owe a lot from first derby this season, where they lost 4-0. Tomorrow, Hinschberger will miss Erdinç, Lejeune and Signorino, but Assou-Ekotto is coming back after suspension, and fortunately their key striker Diabate, who arrived in winter, and didn't participate on first derby of this year, is fit and will play. With 3 points, Metz would jump on 39 points where I think that they would be finally save from possibility of relegation. On schedule, this is the easiest opponent of Metz, till end of the season. Hinschberger was defending his team after big loss against Lorient, saying that Lorient won 1-4 in Lyon. They lost 4 of last 5 matches, and this match is vital for them, as they can find themselves in really problematic situation in case of defeat. Key factor of Metz will be already mentioned Diabate, who scored 8 goals on 12 matches, after signing for them in winter transfer window. 7 of those 8 goals were scored on Symphorien.

Nancy is on 19th place right now and unfortunately, schedule won't be too easy for them. After Metz, they will host Monaco at home and even if it will be between Champions league matches against Juventus, I am pretty sure that main focus of Monaco is still on L1 and Jardim will come with the strongest squad. After that they will play another relegation battle in Dijon and in last round, they will play against Saint Etienne who will probably play for nothing, so IMO they can count on points there. But till then, situation can be pretty messy for them. Correa will miss creative midfielder Aït Bennasser, who scored one of four goals on first match in this season. With 3 goals, he is second best striker of Nancy (that tells a lot about the team!). Besides Aït, Nancy will miss also defender Muratori and striker Koura. A lot will depend on their key player Dia, who scored 8 of all 25 goals od Nancy. Besides, Nancy fan group isn't allowed to participate on the match. I need to mention also the fact, that key player Dia has problems with tendon and even if I believe that he will start (regarding the importance of the match), he isn't 100% prepared.

It's obvious that even if both teams are in pretty bad situation, Metz is still 4 points above and pressure will be bigger on Nancy for sure. That could be both, good and bad, but I highly doubt that there will be any kind lack of motivation as it is derby. Nancy key players, except Dia (29) and Bennasser who is injured, are pretty much over 30. Hadji 37, Pedretti 36, Diarra 35, Dale 31. Important left full back Muratori injured knee ligaments and Correa substituted him with Cetout, who played most of matches as defensive midfielder this season. With tall striker - Diabate, Metz became much more dangerous from crosses, indirect set-pieces, etc. and as Nancy has plenty of troubles with defending aerial duels, it might be a problem for them in this pretty much equal match. I think that teams are pretty similar, and home pitch factor could be decisive as well. Also because an away fan group won't be able to support the team. I think that in worst scenario for Metz, match will end with draw, while I gave them pretty good chances to win the match.

FT: 2-1

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