Saturday, 1 April 2017

Lorient - Caen

PICK: Lorient team totals over 1,25 @1,819 PINNACLE 5/10

There is only 8 round more in Ligue 1 and 20th placed Lorient will try to beat 17th placed Caen, who is 7 points in front of them. I believe that Stade Le Moustoir will be full of Lorient supporters as already on Wednesday number of home supporter jumped over 12.000! 

Lorient have their hopes back. Not only fans, who feels that momentum is here, and that they need to support their team, but also players. After many defeats, atmosphere in club was really bad, but with overcoming result in Nancy, they have shown that they are fully capable to save the season. It is really not easy to score 3 goals in Nancy, specially not if they are in lead as their defensive system, turns into ultra defensive system afterwards. Lorient did it, Casoni substituted defender Ciani with winger Cabot, and they started playing much more dangerous and at the end they took deserved 3 points. As Nancy lost against Guingamp on Friday and Bastia lost today against Lille, that's the opportunity for Lorient to jump off from the 20th position, on which they have been sitting for a while. Even though that they will miss some players due to suspensions; Moukandjo, Marveaux, Waris, Cabot, Mvuemba are here, and quality of those players is good enough to beat poor Caen. 

Caen didn't impress me. They were 2 goals in front in Nice (luckily) and match finished 2-2. They lost against Monaco and Angers at home, and before those three matches they won two matches, both with only a goal difference and both far from really deserved (St. Etienne and Nancy). Their game style is mainly focused on crosses on "big guys" Santini and Rodelin in the box, but creation level is poor. In average they have over 11 shots per game, but mainly, those are shots from bigger distance.

As mentioned above, players of Lorient can feel the momentum and I believe that they will step up tomorrow and show a good performance. As their defence is far the worst in the league (61 goals conceded), they will need to score goals here if they want to take all three points. It will be a tough match for them, but as we were able to see in first match (Caen 3-2 Lorient), they haven't had problems with breaking through Caen's defence. They had decent chances to score more (they were leading 0-2) but they let Caen to come back and even to win the match. Is Lorient capable to play low scoring match? Maybe, but if they will be behind, they will exploit all their chances and try with "all out attack" tactics, as they did it in Nancy. Caen conceded 51 goals in 30 matches, which means that they have 4th worst defence in the league, and I simply don't believe that Lorient with their offensive potential cannot finish this match without scoring goals. Mvuemba said on press conference that they need to be patient and to play smart, but playing defensively against Caen is almost impossible, because no one will be in possession in that case. Caen is also better in aerial duels and if Lorient won't take advantage of possession, create more chances, than they will be the one who will suffer. With new 3 points, Lorient would have 28, same as 18th placed Nancy and with easier schedule than them. Don't get me wrong, I said that this factor of "must win" situations doesn't affect me too much and I am giving much more credits on quality of team and of what I believe that they are capable of. In my opinion, Lorient is less organised team, but the one which possess much more quality. With stadium full of their supporters, I believe that they will give everything to be "back in the game".

FT: 1-0 half lost

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