Sunday, 30 April 2017

Caen - Marseille

PICK: Marseille AH -1 @2,67 PINNACLE 2/10

Today at 15:00, stade Michel d'Ornano will host match between 17th placed Caen and 6th Marseille.

We could say that Caen is in crisis. In last match, they were playing against Nantes, who is somehow in mid-table and is playing without any kind of obligation, but Caen was simply poor. With only 2 shots on target in 90 minutes, you cannot win enough points to stay in the league. Luckily for them, Lorient and Nancy both lost yesterdays matches, but unfortunately Bastia won and they are in the mess down there as well (5 teams in 3 points difference). Garande was forced to change formation against Nantes, but it wasn't due to tactics reasons, but simply because of injuries. They were used to play in 3-4-3 formation, which was 3-4-3 only on the paper, while it was more like 5-3-2 (5-4-1) on the pitch. They have problems with right side of defence as Guilbert and Genevois (he picked up an injury in 10th minute against Metz) are missing. Caen is on winless run of 7 matches and in my opinion, they will have tough time against Marseille as well.

Marseille is fighting for Europe spot. Right now Bordeaux is in better position, while Saint Etienne and Nantes are only 3-4 points behind them. They want to finish in top5 and it would be an unsuccessful season for them if they will fail. They will miss only Sertic from important players today, so we can anyway expect the strongest possible lineup of Garcia. They failed to score in last 3 away matches (Lille, Toulouse, Nancy) which is unacceptable for team as they have, but they were without their first goalscorer Gomis in two of those three matches. Today, Bafetimbi is in squad and offensive trio with Thauvin, Gomis and probably Payet, will be too much for Caen in my opinion. I am saying probably Payet, because it can happen that he will stay in midfield and Cabella will be in offensive trio, but with Lopez back in squad, we'll probably see Payet higher, and Cabella on the bench.

We cannot compare quality of those two teams, not at all, not even experiences from bigger matches, actually nothing, but it's true that Caen need to win points if they want to breath easier. On the other hand, as mentioned, Marseille cannot afford to lose another points because Bordeaux is already 3 points above them. With win, Marseille would put pressure on Bordeaux who will play right after them and against Dijon, who is in my opinion better side then Caen. It's raining in Caen, which could be advantage for "bad football" - as I said million times this year, Caen is putting all hopes on their tall strikers and successful crosses, but I believe that Marseille will be much better prepared on them as Metz was for example. With Fanni and especially Rolando in defence, they are physical and really tough to beat in aerial duels. Marseille, especially with Payet on the pitch is much more dangerous from set-pieces and also from shots from distance and wet pitch might be a problem for Caen goalkeeper Vercoutre. All in all, I am going with -1 Marseille win, as I think that they are at least for 2 goals better team than Caen is. They lost at home against Nantes, Montpellier and Monaco with results 0-2, 0-2 and 0-3 and I think that Marseille can do something similar. They will be much stronger in midfield, Thauvin will be too much for their defence, and with Gomis back, conversion rate of Marseille will be better as well.

FT: 1-5

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