Tuesday, 11 April 2017

Post match analysis

Comment of the round: All in all, it was very successful week-end (75% success rate), but I am not as satisfied with analysis as I would like to be. My highest stake was on Monaco, and this match was actually pretty close to "coin flip" match, where everything might happen. I believe that all what matters to you - followers, is profitable predictions, but to improve, to be better, and to keep profitable stats, I need to be more careful and dig deeper. But well, that's football and we all know that everything can happen in football. On the other hand is also true, that as lucky as we were with Monaco, we were unlucky with Dijon, which match could finish totally different. 

Angers 0-1 Monaco
Prediction: Monaco AH -0,5

That was hell of the match. Angers missed two great chances in start of the game, and Moulin men could be in 2-0 lead. But Subašić saved Monaco, and after those two chances, they started playing much better. After scoring the goal, they created 2 or 3 more decent chances, but missed all of them. After all missed chances by Monaco, Angers had their chance but they missed it again - more in video. All in all it's a good question, if there was the value in those odds, regarding the match and all the chances of Angers, but that's how it is. 

Caen 0-2 Montpellier
Prediction: Montpellier AH 0

I need to say, that after posting analysis with predictions, I was wondering why not Montpellier -0,5, with odds above 3. Value was tremendous in my opinion. As analysed, the only chances of Caen came after crosses, set-pieces, corners, where they were trying with headers. They could score, it's true. Karamoh missed impossible, but Montpellier was simply better and they totally deserved all three points in Normandie. As written in analysis, Boudebouz was the one who had big impact on the match.

Dijon 1-2 Bastia
Prediction: Dijon AH -0,5

Dijon slipped. They were better side, they had more than 67% of possession, they were bigger threat for the opponent, but Bastia was the one who scored twice. As you'll be able to see in video, Bastia was pretty lucky that both balls finished where they were. Even if Cahuzac (probably most hated player of the Ligue 1) almost missed the empty goal, ball finished in top corner and Dijon was unable to equalise the score. Situation is now even more confused, as both Lorient and Bastia grabbed unexpected wins in last round.

Las Palmas 4-1 Real Betis
Prediction: Las Palmas AH -0,5

As match started, guests from Andalusia were better. They had 1 solid chance and one pretty interesting situation, where referee's whistle went in favour of Las Palmas, while it might be more fair with penalty or goal of Real Betis. After that Las Palmas started playing better, creating some chances, but honestly result is little bit too high. Anyway, as written in analysis, players as Jese, Boateng, Viera, are capable to individually decide the winner, and exactly that happened. 

No comments:

Post a Comment