Sunday, 14 May 2017

Montpellier - Lyon

PICK: Lyon AH -0,25 @1,961 PINNACLE 3/10

Today at 21:00 15th placed Montpellier will host 4th placed Lyon on their Stade de la Mosson.

Montpellier won only two matches from last 8, other 6 matches were defeats and things are very unclear there. If Boudebouz will leave after the season, they will be in serious problems, as Algerian is almost the only player who is making the difference on the pitch for them. When he is in poor form, or well covered, they have serious problems with creating decent chances. Today they will mis important defenders Hilton and Roussillon. 

Lyon almost succeeded with "remontée" against Ajax, but they were short for one goal. It's tough to know what is in heads of players, but they are professionals and they need to finish the season as strong as possible. They will stay on 4th place, but process of preparing on next season has already started, so players needs to prove themselves. Some of them are facing move in summer and they need to play as good as possible as well (we all saw how Bakayoko "ruined" his season/price with one bad performance against Juventus). Difference between teams is 24 points, and that's why it surprised me to see odds that high. It's true that Lyon had match on Thursday, but it's not first time that they have played in Sunday-Thursday-Sunday tempo for a while, so  I believe that they are used to it. Besides, Depay is eager to show his potential, and he didn't participate in LE match, as he was already registered for Manchester United in the start of the season. Only Darder, Morel and Mammana are not included in squad, so we can expect strong lineup by Genesio. 

So big difference between teams, Lyon 4th, Montpellier 15th, big difference in quality of players as well and except home pitch, which is far from a "fortress" this season (1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in last 5 home matches), I cannot find not even a single thing which would be pointing on Lyon defeat today. As I said before LE match, they are doing too many mistakes in defence, but that's happening when they are under pressure. Will Montpellier press them? I am not sure. Will Lyon press Montpellier? Yes they will. They will be positioned high on the pitch, and except of Boudebouz free kick, I cannot see no one else who could save them from another defeat at home. Odds are pretty nice again, as they are close to even and -0,25 means that we are loosing only a half if match will finish with draw.

FT: 1-3

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