Tuesday, 2 May 2017

My point of view on Champions league - Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid

First El Madrileño in semi finals of Champions league will be played on Santiago Bernabeu. First let's take a look what the stats say about derby match.

- Last 4 matches of Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid finished with 2 wins of Real Madrid and 2 draws.
- Real Madrid have won 35 of last 41 Champions league matches on Santiago Bernabeu.
- Alongside Juventus, Real Madrid is the only unbeaten team in current Champions league season.
- Real Madrid scored at least two goals in each of their 10 CL games this season.
- Real Madrid failed to keep a clean sheet in those 10 games.
- Atletico are the lowest scoring semi-finals team in this CL season.
- Real Madrid have won all four knockout games in this season, despite conceding the opening goal in all of them.
- Last 11 CL goals of Real Madrid have been scored from the 47th minute onwards.
- There have been at least 3 goals scored in Real Madrid's last 10 games.
- Atletico Madrid are undefeated in 10 of their last 11 Champions league matches.
- We have seen 2 or less goals on last 4 matches between those two teams on Santiago Bernabeu.
- There have been 2 or less goals on 5 of last 6 Champions league matches of Atletico Madrid.

Real Madrid is coming to match after tough win against Valencia. Cristiano Ronaldo penalty was saved by Diego Alves in second half, and after equaliser of Dani Parejo in 82nd minute, Brazilian full back Marcelo was the hero of Los Blancos as he scored the winner in 86th minute. They are still on second place, but with same amount of points as Barcelona 

Zidane will miss winger Bale and defenders Pepe and Coentrao.

My expected lineup: Navas; Carvajal, Ramos, Varane, Marcelo; Modrić, Kasemiro, Kroos; Isco; Benzema, Ronaldo (4-3-1-2)

Atletico Madrid is coming to match after relaxing win on Canary Islands. With 3 goals advantage in less than 20 minutes, Simeone substituted both attackers Griezmann and Gameiro in 67 and 71st minute. Injury of Gimenez is pretty bad news for El Cholo, but Carrasco is coming back to squad and attack of Atletico will be much stronger with Belgium international.

Simeone will miss defenders Vrsaljko, Juanfran, Gimenez and defensive midfielder Fernandez.

My expected lineup: Oblak; Hernandez, Godin, Savić, Luis; Saul, Gabi, Koke, Carrasco; Griezmann, Gameiro (4-4-2)

Once again, I will skip all the predictions for this match, as I think that it can go in different outcomes. Problem of Atletico may be on their right full back position, where young Hernandez will need to play as Juanfran, Vrsaljko and Gimenez who played on this position in last matches are injured. In my opinion, Real Madrid has the strongest individual of the team on this position and this is Marcelo. 

Even if it can sound funny to many of you - that I am pointing out a left full back in the team with players as Ronaldo, Kroos, Modrić, Benzema.. well, if we are at Karim. In my opinion Real would be much stronger on the pitch with Morata, but it looks that Zinedine Zidane will let him on the bench again. Bale is injured, which means that we'll probably see Isco, Asensio or Vazquez on the pitch from the start, which is in my opinion just an advantage for Real as Bale was clearly out of form after recovering from injury. As I mentioned above, I expect Isco in attacking midfielder role and duo Benzema-Ronaldo as attackers in 4-3-1-2 formation. It's probably unfair to point out only Marcelo, so I'll do it also for right full back of Real Madrid, as Carvajal is having decent season as well. Both assisted a lot of goals in this season and for me, they are the biggest threat for Jan Oblak, especially because of Ronaldo's ability of scoring goals. Atletico will stay back, try to keep the wall in front of Oblak, but they won't play ultra defensively. I am sure, that they won't - well, they won't if they will stay with 11 players on the pitch (Both teams have some individuals, who are pretty prone to commit ugly fouls). All in all, I expect careful match from start, with Real Madrid with higher % of possession, and Atletico who will try to surprise Los Blancos on counter-attacks. 

With Griezmann, Gameiro, Carrasco they have some great individuals, and with pretty shaky defence, Real will have problems as well. In my opinion, match tempo will depend on time of first goal. As mentioned above, I will stay far away from betting point of view.

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