Sunday, 14 May 2017

Athletic Bilbao - Leganes

PICK: Athletic Bilbao AH -1 @1,85 PINNACLE 3/10

Match between 6th placed Bilbao and 16th placed Leganes will be played on San Mames Barria. Gijon cannot catch Leganes, to their season is saved and anyway they will play their last match at home against Deportivo Alaves. Bilbao is still in position to go higher on the table as there is only 1 point difference between 5th Villarreal and 7th Villarreal.

Bilbao played solid at home in this season. Except defeat against Real Madrid (1-2), they won 7 of last 8 matches and if they've beaten teams as Espanyol and for me personally, Espanyol is much stronger team and harder to beat than Leganes. Valverde will miss Laporte in defence, while all others are available to him, so we can expect strong lineup for last match in front of their fans. 

Leganes is typical home team, winning points mostly at home. They are without away win since 1st October 2016, when they've beaten Granada away. Bilbao is of course totally different opponent. Leganes lost against teams as Malaga, Espanyol, Betis and Eibar with more than a goal difference. It's true that they played solid against Barcelona (2-1) but we all know the situation, when ultra underdog is crazily motivated and is playing "match of the season" against the giant in the league, so I am not counting those matches as relevant. Moreover they will miss Herrerin and Lopez, who are loaned from Bilbao.

All in all I expected bigger difference in odds. For me, Bilbao is typical top6 team, while Leganes will be in relegation battle again on next season. With 8 wins and 9 draws they have 33 points and luckily that will be enough, as especially Granada and Osasuna had really poor season (only 4 wins). Atlethic ended their great run against Alaves in last match, but I believe that they will continue good home run anyway and finish the season with 14 home wins which is quite solid. With their high pressing I expect them to create lots of chances, as Leganes isn't the team who would control the ball in the best way. It will be tough to score against compact team as Bilbao is and I think that when Bilbao will score the first goal, it will be the end for Leganes. As mentioned, I think that there is quite good value in odds over 1,80 on AH -1. For me there is a bigger difference between those two teams as odds are showing.

FT: 1-1

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