Monday, 15 May 2017

Post match analysis

Comment of the round: With 5 of 6 correct predictions I can only say that I am very satisfied with all the analysis and results as well. As I've written in post match analysis, Caen-Rennes was my favourite in this weekend as I went against a bookmakers and proved them wrong! 

Dijon 2-0 Nancy
Prediction: Dijon AH -0,5

Even though both teams had 1 shot on target in first half, Dijon was the better team on the pitch, having much more attempts than Nancy, having possession, and simply showing bigger wish to solve the season. In second Sammaritano had a solo and score a important first goal for Dijon. Later on, Nancy had a 100% chance but they hit the crossbar and few minutes later, Diony finished hopes for Nancy with 11th goal in the season. Tavares could make it 3-0 after great action of Diony, but he missed and match finished with 2-0. As analysed, the biggest difference between those two teams is in attack. Nancy is among the poorest one, while Dijon is exceptional, but their problem is irresponsibility, especially in defence. All in all, analysis was good, prediction correct and that's it.

Caen 0-1 Rennes
Prediction: Rennes AH +0,75

This result made my day. Odds were dropping crazily on home side, but as I wrote in analysis it was mainly because there is millions of people in the world, who lives for so called "must win" matches - Caen is playing in Paris in last round and they need a win to save the season, otherwise they will depend on other matches. But is this reason enough big, to give them more than 60% chances (odds approx at 1,65) to win the match? Is it valuable? As I've said in analysis, for me personally, there is value against them. Rennes was better side in first half, Caen was practically without any kind of serious threat. In second they had two chances in their own way, in their style. First one was corner and second one was from almost the same spot, but it was a cross from in-play situation. Both were missed by Rodelin and I need to mention, that second one was stoped by the crossbar. But later on, just take a look what kind of chance was saved by Caen's goalkeeper Vercoutre, who was their key player also in lucky win in Toulouse. All in all, there might be foul of Said at the goal, or maybe not, but one thing is clear. Caen didn't deserve to win the match. If anyone did, then Rennes did. We had a debate about the match with the owner of TipsterHQ and we were both on the same page. Caen was overrated in this duel!

Montpellier 1-3 Lyon
Prediction: Lyon AH -0,25

I have nothing to say here. Lyon was simply better, as mentioned they pressed higher on the pitch and forced Montpellier to make mistakes in defence. That's how they scored first goal, while second came after poor positioning. Ryad's corner kick lead to the goal of Mounie, but later on Lacazette finished the match with second goal of the night.

Bordeaux 1-1 Marseille
Prediction: Marseille AH +0,25 hw

Match started strangely. Marseille was in kind of cramp and Bordeaux took advantage of it. Even though assistant referee was waving much before the last pass, players shouldn't be that much confused as they were, and Rolan scored for 1-0. There was another situation for 2-0 in just 5 minutes, but it stayed at 1 goal difference. After that, Marseille started playing better. They had more and more possession, and as analysed, Thauvin started causing them more and more problems. Thauvin was just a few centimetres short to equalise before the half time. In second, Marseille finally scored and goal was a product of two players mentioned in analysis - Thauvin and Gomis. I am happy to take the edge on asian handicap line, as Marseille was underrated in my opinion, so I am satisfied with this half win result.

Manchester City 2-1 Leicester City
Prediction: Manchester City AH -0,75 1st half   half win

People are saying that there was an offside before the goal of Silva, but official comment of the decision was that decision of referee was correct. Machester City was much better in this 1st half and it looked that it will be 3-0, but then one direct counter attack of Leicester succeeded, and it succeeded in amazing way. Okazaki scored a magnificent volley and half time ended with 2-1. As analysed, City created dozens of solid chances, but as whole season, they were unsuccessful too many times in this match again. Anyway they won it, and pick is graded with half win. I am satisfied with analysis, as City was seriously better in this first half, while their performance dropped in the second half.

Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Leganes
Prediction: Athletic Bilbao AH -1

Unfortunately it was the only missed prediction in the round, and everyone who have seen the match are saying that Bilbao should have won with 2-3 goals difference but instead they allowed Leganes to score a cheap goal (goalkeeper could do it much much better) and they were unfortunate in the box, as dozens of shots missed the post for just a few centimetres. I cannot say that I am unsatisfied with analysis, as match was all about Bilbao. Statistics doesn't lie, and Bilbao had almost 60% of possession, 10 shots more than Leganes, actually Leganes succeded to shot on target only twice in whole match (once from the corner kick) and once when they scored, while Bilbao's conversion ratio was far from average.

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