Tuesday, 30 May 2017

Post match analysis

Comment: I need to say that result in Lille really surprised me, but anyway I finished the last round of Ligue 1 in profitable numbers. Mutually it was little bit less than 2 units of profit, which means that I finished the season with 79,14 units of profit! That means that if you were following me with 50 € per unit, you've made 3957,00 € of profit. Unofficially the highest investor in my picks is coming from Bulgaria (unofficially because, he is the highest investor to who I was talking to). He was following my French league analysis with stake of 200,00 € per unit and he made 15828,00 € of profit in this season! I believe that for many of bettors, stakes like this are too high, but don't forget that my average stake is little bit more than 4 units and that total yield is above 22%.

Lorient 1-1 Bordeaux
Prediction: Bordeaux AH +0,25

Unfortunately I didn't have enough of time on Saturday and I needed to post analysis more than 12 hours before the game. As expected odds dropped on Lorient, as again public was hardly on home team, as they were playing to avoid relegation, while Bordeaux especially after goal of Marseille had nothing to play for. But as I've said few times in last 2-3 weeks: there is difference between 6th and 18th placed team, and odds on home teams are in those "must win" matches ridiculous! Lorient was without important players and even though they started the match pretty strong, they were far from better team in the pitch - with only 39% of possession, Bordeaux had 13 tackles more and all in all Bordeaux was the one, closest to all three points. 

Rennes 2-3 Monaco
Prediction: Monaco AH -0,5

As written in analysis I was surprised to see Monaco on odds above even even if some rotations were expected. Jardim left some important players on the bench, but still lineup of champions was pretty strong and simply too tough for Rennes. Jorge, N'Doram, Diallo.. those players might be in much bigger role on next season as Monaco will probably stay without few key players (for example Bernardo Silva already signed for Manchester City). Youngsters Diakhaby and Mubele had a decent match and thanks to them, farewell of Costil was fine. Monaco who played far from their 100% in my opinion, was able to control the match and win was totally deserved.

Lille 3-0 Nantes
Prediction: Nantes AH +0,25

Strange result, but the match was far from that. Just take a look of all the goals of Lille and two missed 100% chances, especially the one of captain Gillet for 1-1 and you'll know what I am talking about. Unfortunately things didn't finish well for Nantes in this match, but they deserved more. I was unable to see the match, but again, even if I thought that I made mistake with analysis when I saw the result, after analysing the match statistics, heat maps of both teams, created chances, I cannot say that I was wrong with analysis of the match. As I've mentioned many times, football is played with the ball and the ball is round, which means that anything is possible during the match. 

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