Tuesday, 9 May 2017

Post match analysis

Comment of the round: it's normal that bad days come, and this Saturday was one of those. The only regret I have is that I didn't take a better look to odds on Atletico-Eibar game, but otherwise both stakes for French league were lower so we didn't lose to much. Anyway, even if I can accept the fact that Dijon had a bad day in front of the goal, I cannot believe how Vercoutre was able to save all the chances of Toulouse. You can see some of them in highlights...

I didn't have time to publish official picks for Sunday in right time, so I just published short previews of matches, and all the thoughts were actually correct, so I hope that at least some of you earned some of units back Sunday. My calls were Nantes +1,25, Rennes win (even correct result), and over 2,5 goals on Marseille-Nice match.

Atletico Madrid 1-0 Eibar
Prediction: Eibar over 0,5 goals

As written in analysis, Atletico was without several defenders and Simeone needed to use Thomas on right full back position. Eibar started well and as you'll be able to see on video highlights, Inui came to solid chance exactly on position which was covered by Thomas in 8th minute, but his shot was stopped by Jan Oblak. As Eibar was playing pretty offensively, Atletico was coming to several chances. First big one was missed by Carrasco from few meters, while second by Saul. First goal came after 68 minutes, and maybe that was the reason why game stayed that low. It would be probably totally different if Carrasco or Saul would score early in match, but they didn't and it looked like Eibar started believing in a point on Calderon, which wouldn't be bad for them. But... Atletico scored for 1-0, and after that Eibar started playing with more passion, offensively again. Atletico was positioned on 40 meters from their goal, trying to attack on counters. In 89th minute Eibar had amazing chance from corner-kick but they missed it. In 92 Atletico stayed without Godin and goal of Eibar was in the air for whole additional time, but in 93rd minute Tiago blocked and saved the goal of Eibar and the final result was 1-0 for Atleti. All in all, I am satisfied with analysis as Eibar caused big problems to Atletico, but I am unsatisfied with prediction as I didn't even check the asian lines here, as I didn't even think about that low odds on Eibar. Better pick would be AH +1,5 on Eibar here, but it's true also, that Atletico could be 2-0 up in first 30 minutes, and match would be totally different in this way.

Guingamp 4-0 Dijon
Prediction: Dijon AH +0,25

Looking at those two pictures, you are probably asking yourself how the hell match finished with 4-0, but well.. answer is simple. Guingamp's conversion rate was much higher. They played mainly with long balls, waiting for mistake of Dijon and on wings of individual quality of Salibur and veteran Briand they won the match with 4 goals difference. Dijon was there, passing around the box, having higher possession of ball, creating more chances, but they were simply not effective in the box. As analysed, they were much better in aerial duels as well (won 21, lost 12). After conceding a goal in 4th minute, they played solid, being better opponent on the pitch for whole remain of the first half, but they struggled in front of the goal. Anyway I was sure, that they will come out of the locker room and start second half in the same way and match will finish at least with draw, but Salibur needed 4 minutes to score twice (55, 59) and match was finished. All in all I cannot say that I am unsatisfied with analysis, regardless the score - everyone who watched the game knows what I am talking about. Match could finish totally different, but extremely good day of Salibur and little bit of bad luck for Dijon was enough for a big win of Guingamp on Roudourou.

Toulouse 0-1 Caen
Prediction: Toulouse AH -0,25

I was somehow impressed by the odds for this match, as bookmakers gave too much of credits to "in need" team. Toulouse started game strongly. Braithwaite was in 1on1 situation with Caen's veteran Vercoutre, and ball already passed the goalkeeper but was saved by captain Silva from the goal line. Later on Toulouse had another chance but Delort's shot finished in Vercoutre's head and half time finished by 0-0. In second half Karamoh received a through ball, but Lafonte was careful enough to pick it up. Next chance of Caen was Bessat's cross which finished on head of Santini and of course 0-1 for Caen. Later on Santini almost kicked the ball to the own goal, but Vercoutre saved this one as well. Again, I cannot be unsatisfied with analysis, as Toulouse was better team on the pitch, created more good chances and player of the match - goalkeeper of Caen Vercoutre is proving that. While other highest rated players besides goalscorer Santini were all defenders as well. 

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