Sunday, 7 May 2017

Sunday's Ligue 1 matches

I was pretty unlucky on two matches. One cross and header of Santini was enough for Caen to win the 3 points, while Atletico kept clean sheet thanks to amazing goalkeeper Oblak and also Tiago, who blocked the shot and saved the goal in 93rd minute. Guingamp destroyed my opinion, but not by the football they have shown, but by the extreme goal conversion. Dijon didn't play that bad, especially not in first half, or till when they had active result. Guingamp had 8 shots on target and they scored 4 goals, while Dijon had the same amount of shots on target, but they failed to score.

Match between two teams, which won't be satisfied with final position at the end at the season. Maybe Rennes, who is on 10th place right now, but I don't see them going over 47 points which is not even half of points reached by 1st Monaco. Montpellier's position is even worse, as they are only 6 points above the 18th position. In last round they lost against Lille at home with catastrophic 0-3 and Gasset's position on the bench is under the question. Rennes lost against the worst team of the league Bastia, but it looks that they will keep the last place in top10 anyway. For me, the biggest mistake of the club was to let N'tep for only 5 millions to Germany. His replacement Amalfitano is poor and injured all the time as well.  I would say that Rennes will win the match with 1-0, 2-1, but I am giving them less chances than odds so there is no value.

Gourcuff will miss winger Amalfitano and attacker Diakhaby, while 3 other missing players Lea-Silki, Diallo and Chantome didn't play that much this season..  
Gasset will miss defender Hilton, while Ligali, Mongongu and Ninga aren't play that much this season. Even though Ninga would be a massive plus for attack of Montpellier, but Gasset cannot count on him for a while.

First match of this season between those two teams ended with 6 goals difference in favour of Lyon, but with Conceiçao, Nantes is totally different and I expect some troubles for Lyon today. Lyon lost Europa league semi finals against Ajax, and they will try to turn around the match, even if result was 4-1 and it won't be easy at all. Lacazette didn't start t in Amsterdam, and he will probably stay on the bench today as well. Lyon is not in that great position anymore, as Bordeaux and Marseille came closer, but they still have everything in their hands. I was tempted to go with Nantes AH +1,25 but odds dropped from 1,85 to 1,55 and there is no value. I believe that Nantes players will be highly motivated to revanche the embarrassing defeat from first part of the season. I expect Genesio to rest some of key players as they have "match of the season" in midweek, but at the same time, they need to be careful as they can lose their position on the league table as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see Nantes getting positive result today.

Genesio will be without Tolisso, Yanga-Mbiwa and Diakhaby, but we can expect also some other players out of the pitch (we'll probably see midfield with Darder and Ferri), while Depay is slightly injured as well but as he is allowed to play in Europa league, he might start anyway.
Conceiçao has whole squad available, but we can expect Dupé being in the goal instead of Riou again as he is having a great season after arrival of Portuguese coach.

Nice "decided" the winner of Ligue 1 in last round in my opinion and now they will be guests on Velodrome, where Marseille is trying to catch Bordeaux. With win, they will be in front of them, but Nice is in great form and it will be tough to beat them in this situation. As I said many times, it's a good question if Nice would be able to hold on the top, if they wouldn't have so many problems with the squad. Right now, two of their crucial players are injured (first goalscorer Plea, and key midfielder Cyprien) but they were still good enough to beat PSG with 3-1. It's true that they had less chances then Parisians, but they were better in both boxes anyway. I expect some troubles of Evra with right side of Nice (Pereira, Soquet) but at the same time, Nice will have problems with Gomis and Thauvin as well. Gomis is kind of player which really doesn't suite to Nice defenders. Everything is pointing on over in the match, but I will stay away as odds are very low right now (1,7).

Rudi Garcia cannot count on Diaby and Sertić.
Favre will miss already mentioned Cyprien and Plea, while Le Marchand is new on the injury list.

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