Thursday, 1 June 2017

Detailed analysis of the season

Quality over quantity!

Comment of the season: Since I moved to France on November 2016, I am closer to the Ligue 1 than ever. Because of that I decided to mainly focus my analysis on French league, as I was able to see many of the teams directly from the stadium and not just on the tv. My way of analysing matches is pretty different than ways of others as I am paying much bigger attention to tactical point of view, while statistics, head-to-head and similar factors aren't that high on the scale. Well, all about that is explained here. The only market which have beaten me was under/over market, where I finished with 9,09 units of minus but on the other hand it's true that I staked only 39 units (only 10 analysis). Main market were asian handicaps, where I staked 294 units (69 analysis) and numbers there are marvellous! 87,99 units of clear profit with 29,93% of yield and win rate on 67,19%! All in all, I finished the season with 85 analysis on Ligue 1. Even if there were only few matches, where I needed to admit, that I made mistake in analysis, or that I haven't been careful enough, 45 predictions finished correctly, 5 half correctly, 5 with void, 3 half missed and 27 with missed result.  

That's how it looks in spreadsheet:


From bettor's point of view, that means that if you would bet 50,00 € per unit, you would have 3957,00€ of profit. As already mentioned, an friend from Bulgaria has been following me with 200,00 € per unit, and he earned 15 828,00 € in this season. 

It's true that 200,00 € per unit may sounds a lot, but there are many people in the world, investing a lot in sports betting. On the other hand you have tipsters who's average stake is between 7-10 units, and they are publishing 10 or more analysis per week. For me, picking a side in the match is not enough, if there is no value in odds and that's why I have less analysis, but what matters is yield and as you can see, mine was 22,23%! Maybe the example of picks is too small for some of you, but I crated the site on November, so it was not acceptable for me to publish statistics from before as it would be irrelevant.

I have published those analysis on some forums and you can verify them there if you want, but since start of the season till creating the page I've already published 21 picks with +11,623 units of profit, but I as said, I didn't add them in spreadsheet as it was before the  and here are the stats:

- September: +6,045 units  (14 picks)
- October: +13,078 units (only 4 picks, because it was a month of international matches)
- November (before opening the site): -7,5 units (3 picks), but I added 8 picks later on with +10,99 units. Those 8 were already published on the page.

Here are stats month by month:
- first line - units of profit in Asian handicap market
- second line - units of profit in Under/Over market
- third line - units of profit in Team totals market


January and February were somehow the toughest months again. After new years eve, rhythm was killed by international break, and as usual, we can always see some surprises (for example Bastia snapped points from Nice, while Caen won against Lyon). Anyway I finished January with small profit, thanks to other two markets, but in February I failed especially because of those two markets (over/under and team totals) where I got 8 units of minus. Asian handicap finished with 0,39 units of profit after 17 analysis - month with the highest number of analysis (19). In the middle of February I had the worst run (7 of 10 missed predictions), when I also published the post with - Bad run or misfortune? 
Regarding the win rate, there wasn't many bad weeks during the season. The most successful month was December, where I didn't touch other markets than asian handicaps. I wrote 10 analysis and 9 of 10 finished in predicted way. 


Other competitions

As written in introduction, my favourite league used to be Spanish La Liga, but after several years of success and as mentioned above, due to moving to France, I started digging and falling in love with French Ligue 1. In my opinion, it isn't good to mix to many leagues, if you want to analyse matches professionally, especially because there is too many differences between the leagues. As you all know, I'm the strongest on Asian handicaps market, where I finished in profitable numbers in both Spanish and English league, but a sample is way to low there - especially in EPL, where I analysed only 7 matches and finished with +1,96 units of profit. With staked 128 units (29 analysis), most of La Liga analysis were with predictions on asian handicaps market. With +12,51 units of profit and yield 9,77% I can be satisfied, especially regarding the fact that my focus wasn't on this league, but on all other markets (over/under, team totals, both teams to score) I staked only 46 units (only 10 analysis) and made -24 units of deficit. With my way of analysing, I've found out international matches as the toughest for me. It's true that national teams are following some tactics, trying to play with their style, but to many different players are coming together, with totally different styles of football from their team and mostly it becomes mixture of everything in national team.

It is way easier with national teams during the bigger tournaments as last Euro for example, as teams are together for much longer period, also well prepared and it's easier to analyse teams. I am adding the stats for Euro16 as it was actually a start to the new season.


Again.. I didn't analyse millions of matches, but "only" 14 of them and made solid profit with high yield percentage. I prefer quality over quantity!


For the end, I would like to say thanks to all of you for support and good feedback during the season.

- Regards!

4 comments:

  1. Great stuff mate , you are one of the great tipsters in the industry. Congrats and keep it rollin' :) I am sure that your results will continue on the same level. Take care

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    1. Thank you! I really appreciate your words!

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  2. Certainly you will be on my top 5 worldwide tipsters for a long time to come, thanks!

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    1. Thank you Sebastian. I hope that I will fulfil your wishes. ;)

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