My analysis

Everyone has his own tactic, well.. that's mine:

I am trying to include all possible factors to analysis. I am not writing about all of them, because in that case analysis would be too long, but here are some facts:

  • Location, stadium, pitch condition, weather, hour!
Everyone who ever played football knows that all of them are important. Location could be important in case that we are analysing game which will be played in South America, Russia, or everywhere else where climate condition could affect players. Also in case of derby, rivalry, etc. Pitch condition and weather are also important considering the style of football of teams playing. Somehow less important here is hour, but there is more and more matches played at 12:00 and some teams don't like that.

  • Coach, tactic, style of play, positive and negative sides of it, strengths and weaknesses, important players, key players, missing players!
As mentioned, I am not writing everything, but this part is part to which I dedicate most of the time and it's most important for me. Every team has his own tactic or more of them (depends on coach), and every tactic has strong and weak sides, so I am trying to find the "miss match" and that's why I am many times writing that in my opinion odds are not set fair. I am trying to predict which team will be in possession, which team will create more chances, which team will have more possibilities to come into dangerous areas, what is they're average conversion rate, etc.

  • Last matches, next matches, form, head-to-head statistic, goals scored, goals conceded!
Some of tipsters are giving this part the biggest importance, but I don't. Many times it doesn't matter on which position team is on the table. For example it happened in 15th round of Ligue 1 that Lorient as 20th placed team had 2,90 against 4th placed Rennes, but Lorient won as I predicted. I could be wrong, but what I am trying to say is that statistics are far from most important facts here. Also h2h stats are not something, because teams in years before could be totally different, even 2-3 weeks could be different. For example under Paco, Granada played over 2,5 almost all the time, then Alcaraz took his place on bench, and they started playing much more defensive and after being defeated in Madrid against Atletico with 7-1, they played 4 unders in a row! But again, that's my point of view. Some tipsters are saying that statistics is all what is important, but I disagree with that. 

  • Value!
Knowing just football part of sports betting business is not enough to be successful. That's why you need to have knowledge about the other part too. In this other part are: betting strategies, psychology, theory, also knowing different bookmakers to get the highest odds, but if you are betting on top leagues, then you'll have the highest odds mostly on bookmakers like pinnacle, sbo, etc. Many tipsters are not doing this, but to search value after analysis I think that it is crucial thing to do: convert odds to implied probability! For example, if team A has @2,00 for win, it means that bookmakers are giving 50% for that to happen.

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