Value

As I wrote in "My analysis", knowing just football part of sports betting business is not enough to be successful. You need to have knowledge about other part which includes betting strategies, betting psychology, betting theory, also knowing different bookmakers to get the highest odds. Many tipsters are skipping this part, but for me is crucial. If you want to make profit on long term, then knowing all those things is simply needed.

Do the math!
So what is value?
There is many synonyms to this word and anyone can understand it in different ways. There is many good ways also, but I will explain it from my point of view. Many bettors are placing bets on favourites with odds around 1,50, putting them in accumulators with even lower odds etc., but are they sure that there is value? Don't get me wrong, you can find value in any odds. If you are 90% sure, that your team, player,... will win, then there is value on 1,20, but there is no value on 1,10. Odds are important! Odds are market prices of bets. I would bet that there is very small percentage of people who understand this last sentence. Many people has misunderstandings and thinking in the way - this team has odds 1,40.. that means that they will win for sure. I believe that you've already heard something like this. Price 1,40 actually means that bookmakers are giving around 71% to this team to win. So there is almost 30% for other outcome. You can understand it also in the way, that odds 1,40 means, that if your team wins, you will get your stake back + 40%. Of course, if your team lose, you are without whole stake. There is not a lot of people who were born with a sense of probabilities and ratios and if you're not one of them and you want to be successful at sports betting business, then you must learn it by yourself, because you won't get it in schools,  high schools, universities (just some of them), etc. Main important thing is that you comprehend that betting odds are already set prices, and that you shouldn't price them by intuition or feeling!

Example:
Match between Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund. Odds for asian handicap -0,5 are 1,90, while for +0,5 are 2,04. You analysed the match and you're saying that that's gonna be a 50/50 match. Is there value to bet on? What you need to know and to understand here is implied probability. There is simple formula how you can calculate it: 1 / decimal odds = _ %

Calculations on example:
100 / @1,90 = 52,6%
100 / @2,04 = 49%

Real Madrid to win - @1,90 means, that bookmakers are giving them 52,6% to win the match.
Borussia Dortmund or draw - @2,04 means, that bookmakers are giving 49% for that outcome.

So you could say that there is small value on BVB, but because there are also bookmakers margins, your analysis outcome is too similar to bookmakers. It would be much easier if it would be a coin flip, because we know that there is exactly 50/50 of chances, but for football match we need to find bigger value. Successful sports bettor finds the value after analysing the match and estimating the probability of given outcomes better than bookmakers!

On example of my analysis Nice - Toulouse. After analysis I predicted win of Nice with 2-3 goals difference, which means that I gave them much more then 50% to win the game. Odds were 2,14, which means that my view on this match was much different then bookmakers. I was confident enough to bet on it with higher stake then my average is, but still not as high as it should be depending on maths. That's the edge you get with experiences. I know that people who works on bookmakers knows the league really good as well, so I didn't overreact with stake even if my odds on Nice would be between 1,75 and 1,80, which means that my stake should be much higher then 6/10. But that's why also theory and psychology are important. Things are slowly coming also to money management, which is another important part of sports betting business.

You can read a lot of articles on internet about betting theories, strategies, psychologies, how to correctly manage your money (money management), but I won't write about them, because this site is about good, quality analysis.

2 comments:

  1. Hi! Just find this site. Thanks very intereresting

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  2. I am glad to hear that Arzu. And of course, welcome to the site!

    ReplyDelete